Which Wych Weapon Works When

So I was just doing some math for fun and I decided to analyze the wych weapons for optimal usage.
Here are my results.
The Shardnet and Impaler are only optimal when the user is hitting on 3s and wounding on 2s.
The Razorflails are optimal when hitting/wounding are 4+/2+, 4+/3+, 5+/2+, 5+/3+, 5+/4+.
The Razorflails and Hydra Gauntlets are equally the best at 3+/3+, 4+/4+, 5+/5+.
Hydra Gauntlets are the best when hitting/wounding on 3+/4+, 3+/5+, 3+/6+, 4+/5+, 4+/6+, and 5+/6+.
This is only a comparison against each other, it doesn't mean that any of them are good at any of those attacks. Here are some charts that may be helpful.
Best weapon when
Roll to hit:       3+           4+           5+
Wound: 2+      Impaler    Flail         Flail
           3+      H/R Tie     Flail         Flail
           4+      Gauntlet   H/R Tie    Flail
           5+      Gauntlet   Gauntlet  H/R Tie
           6+      Gauntlet   Gauntlet  Gauntlet

When using the correct weapon your chance to successfully wound with any given attack is
Roll to hit:       3+     4+     5+
Wound: 2+      .76    .63     .46
           3+      .59    .50     .37
           4+      .50    .38     .28
           5+      .37    .28     .19
           6+      .20    .15     .10

And charts for all three weapons:

Shardnet/Impaler
Roll to hit:       3+     4+     5+
Wound: 2+      .76    .57     .38
           3+      .59    .44     .29
           4+      .34    .26     .17
           5+      .13    .10     .07
           6+      .03    .02     .01

Razorflails
Roll to hit:       3+     4+     5+
Wound: 2+      .74    .63     .46
           3+      .59    .50     .37
           4+      .44    .38     .28
           5+      .30    .25     .19
           6+      .15    .13     .09

Hydra Gauntlets
Roll to hit:       3+     4+     5+
Wound: 2+      .65    .49     .32
           3+      .59    .44     .30
           4+      .50    .38     .25
           5+      .37    .28     .19
           6+      .20    .15     .10

As such, my advice is to use razorflails as they are very good at taking out hard to hit or easy to wound models, and high toughness targets should be being removed by your poison attacks and antitank anyways. The only exception is that for sending wyches meq hunting (barring a strength bonus from combat drugs, hydra gauntlets are the best choice.
EDIT: See below discussion, long story short is that hydras are probably better because of the targets you will actually be fighting.

I look at your numbers and am uncertain why you decide razorflails are a better overall TAC option than hydra gauntlets.

Just looking at the core pieces of info;
The Razorflails are optimal when hitting/wounding are 4+/2+, 4+/3+, 5+/2+, 5+/3+, 5+/4+.
The Razorflails and Hydra Gauntlets are equally the best at 3+/3+, 4+/4+, 5+/5+.
Hydra Gauntlets are the best when hitting/wounding on 3+/4+, 3+/5+, 3+/6+, 4+/5+, 4+/6+, and 5+/6+.

So, on the identical ones - clearly, identical.
What Wyches with Razorflails show as good versus are (and I make a few adjustments on the idea of boosts from Drugs or FC);

4+/2+ - WS 4-5 and T 1-2? I don't think any of these exist. They might...but I can think of nothing.
4+/3+ - WS 4-5 and T 2-3? Some Eldar units could meet this, though you would want FC or a Str boost to make it likely. Probably a few IG options as well, and Kroot? I think Kroot too.
5+/2+ - WS 8+ and T 1-2? Basically this doesn't exist.
5+/3+ - WS 8+ and T 2-3? Again - does this even exist?
5+/4+ - WS 8+ and T 3-4? ...Succubi, right? I think the Succubus is about it for this entry. Lelith also. Does Lucius? I think he's a WS 7 though...

So, basically all the slots they do better than Hydras in...appear to be either highly unlikely, or very specific.

Let's look at Hydra now; first off there are more of them, so even at a glance this feels likely to be better, but I guess it does depend on the possible matchups;

3+/4+ WS 1-4 T 2-3
and pairs nicely with
3+/5+ WS 1-4 T 3-4

These two entries appear to cover all MEQ of basic sorts, also Orks, Grots, most Nid infantry, most Tau, most Eldar, most IG, most Sisters, etc. ect. This is a lot of stuff. For the MEQ/Orks it does require some drugs *and* FC, natch - but, still.

3+/6+ WS 1-4 T 5-7 - this is most basic MCs and bikers actually...I wouldn't want to fight them with Wyches. But, meh, they are the best option if you do.

4+/5+ WS 4-8 T 4-5 - This is a big one when paired with the first two. Now, basically whatever combo of drugs you get, you are including almost all MEQ, almost all Orks, a lot of special IG and Tau and Eldar, more Nids. Pretty much this is most models in the game between these three entries with whatever our drug and PfP effects are giving us.

4+/6+ WS 4-8 T 5-7 - again, stuff I wouldn't want to fight, but this is pretty much every other possible special unit in the game here. Nobz, Warbosses, Captains/Chapter Masters on bikes or Wolves, most MCs, a pile of daemons, it's a lot of stuff.

5+/6+ WS 8+ T 5-7 - I dunno, Daemon Princes, some Greater Daemons. Don't fight this stuff, but, meh, Hydras are the best option if you do apparently, and I guess you could tarpit them, which might be an okay use for Wyches.

=============================

So that's how I look at the info and stick with my original concept of 'Hydra are the best option'.
Can I ask how you got to Razorflails as a solid choice?

Yep, upon taking into account the actual targets they are likely to face better, I agree with you. Hydras probably are the better bet.

I think it's easiest to rank the weapons' effectiveness by a 'point system.'

Each number a weapon allows you to reroll on, the better the weapon. So for instance, if you wound on 4+, then Hydra Gauntlets would have a rating of 3. Likewise, Razorflails would have a rating of 3 if you hit on 4+.

Therefore, each weapon's rating would increase/decrease based on the roll you need to succeed. Fighting Plague Marines, Hydra Gauntlets would have a rating of 5.

If we go by this rating system, it soon becomes very apparent that Shardnets and Impalers are only more effective than Hydra Gauntlets and Razorflails when you hit or wound on a 2+. In what circumstances is this likely to occur? Few and far between.

Since Shardnet/Impalers are off the table, you have to consider whether the Razorflail or Hydra Gauntlet is better. Due to the nature of the 'hit table,' you are rarely going to hit worse than a 4. Therefore Razorflails will rarely have a rating better than a 3.

Since Wyches are S3 and can at worst wound on 6, the rating of Hydra Gauntlet is most often going to be higher than a 3.

Even combat drugs make a negligible difference, as you will still rarely hit worse than a 4+.

Even if you roll +1S for your Combat Drugs, and you're fighting Guardsmen, Razorflails still won't be better.

Hydra Gauntlets forever and always.

I have a question more about whether the wych weapons are worth the cost. What I ran numbers wise was 2 wyches with hydra gauntlets vs 3 wyches with no upgrades since both would be 30 points and I tested against standard MEQ. The point was just to see if it was worthwhile to get the weapons or if you'd be better of having an extra body even though most people probably only run one in their units.

On the charge, I have the hydras averaging 1.111 wounds per round while having the extra wych came to 1 wound.

Off the charge, I have the hydras averaging 1.667 wounds per round while having the extra wych came to 1.5 wounds.

It is a slight edge, but having less attacks in the first place also means there's no possibility of getting 5 or 6 wounds which the extra wych can offer (even if it's an unlikely event). I think it's also important to consider the advantage of having an extra body in the unit for surviving longer and throwing out another pistol shot. I see wyches being mentioned more for holding units up rather than their own killing power, so I'm curious if there are other factors I'm not thinking of that encourage you guys to run the wych weapons.

I am neither advocating taking hydra gauntlets *nor* wyches

lessthanjeff wrote:

On the charge, I have the hydras averaging 1.111 wounds per round while having the extra wych came to 1 wound.

Off the charge, I have the hydras averaging 1.667 wounds per round while having the extra wych came to 1.5 wounds.

I don't quite understand this, the hydra gauntlets average more wounds per round when they're not charging? And therefore rolling less attack dice?

Without combat drugs hydras deal .28 wounds per attack and regular attacks deal .17 wounds per attack before saving throws against meq. This means that 2 wyches on the charge with hydras should be dealing 6*.28=1.67 wounds and 3 wyches without hydras will deal 1.5 wounds plus 1 wound from shooting before saves. Not on the charge, 2 wyches with hydras deal 1.11 wounds and 3 wyches without deal 1 plus .25 wounds from overwatch. In other words wych weapons are not points efficient for killing meq. Although if you can't buy more wyches they do improve your killing power.
Long story short, although Hydras are the best wych weapons, more wyches are even better than any wych weapons at all. (At least on normal wyches, succbi and hekatrix are different and more math will come later.

Teetengee wrote:

Long story short, although Hydras are the best wych weapons, more wyches are even better than any wych weapons at all.

This is the same conclusion that we came to with the last codex, once all the mathhammer was done. If you've got the points and the space in your transport, just buy more wyches.

Teetengee wrote:

Long story short, although Hydras are the best wych weapons, more wyches are even better than any wych weapons at all. (At least on normal wyches, succbi and hekatrix are different and more math will come later.

Ask and you shall receive.
You can find the answer to that here.¹


Summary:

• Hydra Gauntlets are rarely worth taking on Wyches. I can only imagine them being good if you don't get the charge, or if the Wyches are stuck in a prolonged fight.
  
  
• IF you take a Hekatrix, it's better to give it any weapon you can afford, rather than no weapon at all. The Agoniser makes it nearly as cost-efficient as a Wych. What this means is that you shouldn't take a Hekatrix soley for its killing power, you should take it for additional reasons such as Ld, challenges, or look out sir tactics.
  
  
• The Succubus benefits tremendously from any weapon you give her (but we already knew that). However, even when you give her an Archite Glaive she's still actually less cost-efficient than a Hekatrix with an Agoniser. Which is pretty funny. It also means point for point, a Succubus isn't as dangerous as a unit of Wyches. Like the Hekatrix, take her for reasons other than her killing power.
  

Fun stuff.

¹Combat Drugs were not factored.

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

lessthanjeff wrote:

On the charge, I have the hydras averaging 1.111 wounds per round while having the extra wych came to 1 wound.

Off the charge, I have the hydras averaging 1.667 wounds per round while having the extra wych came to 1.5 wounds.

I don't quite understand this, the hydra gauntlets average more wounds per round when they're not charging? And therefore rolling less attack dice?

That's why i shouldn't log on at 5:30 am. I switched the on and off the charge labels.

I'm not really sold on the wyches in general myself either, but expecting to play against Tyrannid on Saturday I thought it would be fun to use a unit of them and a succubus. I'm also going to test out the dark artisan formation and some incubi to get a good old-fashioned brawl going.

Khordajj wrote:

even when you give her an Archite Glaive she's still actually less cost-efficient than a Hekatrix with an Agoniser. Which is pretty funny. It also means point for point, a Succubus isn't as dangerous as a unit of Wyches. Like the Hekatrix, take her for reasons other than her killing power.

Like the fact you have to have a mandatory HQ? Not counting unbound obviously.

I'd be surprised if this was the case once you factor in the fact you need to buy at least five wyches and then the hekatrix and then the agoniser - it's also target dependant since the succubus actually has a use against terminators whereas the hekatrix will just bounce off.

And my primary reason for a Succubus being better by far than a Hekatrix? I can put her with something that isn't Wyches!

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

I'd be surprised if this was the case once you factor in the fact you need to buy at least five wyches and then the hekatrix and then the agoniser - it's also target dependant since the succubus actually has a use against terminators whereas the hekatrix will just bounce off.

Well, recognize that the numbers are gamed here - and pay attention to what they are actually saying.

What it is saying is 2 things.

1. A Hekatrix w. Aggie will kill, point-for-point the same number of MEQ as a Succubus w. Glaive. So, both will hit on 3 and wound on 4 and ignore armor, and though the Succubus will kill more MEQ, on a point for point scale she's killing the same relative value. That said - she is still killing more MEQ, and also this is against about the optimal Aggie opponent - it is a MEQ killing weapon. Against TEQ or against a T3 model the numbers will shift.

2. The other point about the squad v. Succubus. Again, what it is saying is that, if after overwatch you have 5 Wyches get into a group of MEQ (meaning you would have needed to buy more than 5, because...c'mon ) but if you do, again on a point for point scale they perform a bit better than the Succubus. That said, they cost 50 points and she costs 95. So she would have to kill twice as many MEQ as them to even claim a tie. That said, she's still killing more MEQ than they are.

Also, I have to admit, I think the math may be off there in any case (either that or I'm doing my own math wrong .

Thor665 wrote:

also this is against about the optimal Aggie opponent - it is a MEQ killing weapon. Against TEQ or against a T3 model the numbers will shift.

This was kinda my real point. Mathammer is fine if you fight silo battles like this and to decide what your primary targets are going to be, but i think far too many people rely on it too much in terms of deciding what's a good choice to take in the first place.

Using that example, yes, point for point the Hekatrix performs better than a succubus. At one particular matchup. Put that same model in a different matchup and it's worse than useless, so fine, if you're tailoring a force to play a particular army then what's been said is useful, but if you happen to come up against deathwing, or a horde army with your aggie Hekatrix then better AP or a greater number of attacks from the Succubus will be more useful to you as her kills per point will stay relatively the same whilst the Hekatrix drops 5 wounds out of every 6 she makes, and so could reasonably be expected not to kill a single TEQ in a combat round. It's basically making the same point you did about hydra gauntlets vs razorflails - yes the flails perform better in some matchups but those matchups are rare and the hydra gauntlets utility is the better all round choice.

Some rough maths.
Succubus with glaive - 95pts
Hekatrix with agoniser and 4 wyches - 85 pts
so the wych squad basically needs to average 90% of the damage of the Succubus to be equivalent on a point for point basis

I'm going to assume we're charging, and there are no casualties to overwatch (I know, but when factoring in extra ablative wounds this is probably the best case scenario for the wyches)

Succubus gets 5 attacks (using the glaive two-handed for equivalent impact to agoniser), so hits 3 1/3 times, which results in 1 2/3 wounds (can we say two, since I can't conceive of doing 2/3 of a wound to something?)

Hekatrix gets 4 attacks, hits twice, so wounds once (oh the joys of whole numbers!)
wyches get 12 attacks, hit 6 times, cause 2 wounds, of which 1 1/3 get saved, leaving 2/3 of a wound, which is...exactly... the same damage output as the succubus on her own. so yes, the hekatrix and wyches are, in a silo combat, slightly better point for point than the succubus. The hekatrix herself would do better on her own, but you can't discount the points for the wyches since you can't take her without them.

As I said above, this comparison only gets worse for wyches if you add in casualties from overwatch, if you count two wounds, the Succubus doesn't drop in efficiency (albeit she is nearly dead) whilst the wych damage drops to 1/3, meaning the wych squad with hekatrix is less points efficient than the succubus.

If they only suffer 1 dead, the wych squad is almost exactly at 90% of the Succubus' damage.

Incidentally, the 2 dead is almost exactly what you'd expect from 20 bolter shots hitting on 6's.

I will say in defense of math - it is not remotely at fault here, and is the tool needed to get the info to figure out what weapon is most useful in most situations.

Thor665 wrote:

I will say in defense of math - it is not remotely at fault here, and is the tool needed to get the info to figure out what weapon is most useful in most situations.

I don't dispute that, but it's equally not the complete answer, since to factor everything in would be, to all intents and purposes, impossible.

As I said, mathammer is great for figuring out individual matchups, but you also need to be aware of what matchups you're likely to face and whether or not you'll need to account for other circumstances.

In the above example, other factors you'd need to add in, impact on GEQ, T5 models (bikes, nurgle etc), what turn you're charging on, whether you're charging a unit with flamers, whether you're taking the unit because you need to or is it an option choice (Succy is my go-to hq, whereas wyches would never be one of my two mandatory troops. Who am I kidding, they'd never be in my list at the moment!)

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

I don't dispute that, but it's equally not the complete answer, since to factor everything in would be, to all intents and purposes, impossible.

Whether or not it's possible to factor everything in fails to suggest that math is incapable of finding the answer and also fails to note that math is still the best metric for coming to the 'best available' answer.

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

In the above example, other factors you'd need to add in, impact on GEQ, T5 models (bikes, nurgle etc), what turn you're charging on, whether you're charging a unit with flamers, whether you're taking the unit because you need to or is it an option choice (Succy is my go-to hq, whereas wyches would never be one of my two mandatory troops. Who am I kidding, they'd never be in my list at the moment!)

Basically you would need to be rushing at something T2 or T6+ for it to make much of a difference as to which squad is better. But my ability to state that is based on math.

I feel you're mistaking "only looking at one matchup" with "using mathhammer"
Mathhammer works great but you should look at multiple expected matchups...that said, you should look at them with mathhammer

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

Like the fact you have to have a mandatory HQ? Not counting unbound obviously.

Obvi.
The principle is you shouldn't use a unit to compete with other units that are better at the same roll. Therefore it would be better to use it differently. If the two units aren't competing with each other, then it doesn't matter as much.

Of course I tested the units in a vacuum, but that's because those are the conditions I care about. If I want to see how the Succubus performs outside of those conditions, I can test it differently.

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

This was kinda my real point. Mathammer is fine if you fight silo battles like this and to decide what your primary targets are going to be, but i think far too many people rely on it too much in terms of deciding what's a good choice to take in the first place.

U right tho. It's hard to use Mathhammer to account for every variable, and too often we mistake what the outputs are actually telling us.

Khordajj wrote:

too often we mistake what the outputs are actually telling us.

I definitely agree with that.

Don't get me wrong guys, I use mathammer myself, and I agree that it's basically the only tool we have to evaluate a unit's performance to a) decide what to take and b) what to use it to attack. What I see though is that a lot of players hammer out these problems without taking into account game variables such as those I mentioned, and then grumble when the unit performs poorly.

Using one of your examples elsewhere Thor, look at incubi - the numbers suggest that they should be great at taking down pretty much any kind of armoured infantry. But you and I both know that the number of times you'll be able to charge a unit like that without charging through cover and therefore suffering the initiative penalty outweighs the potential damage the unit could do.

In a TAC list, you then also have to consider that taking specialised units is great, but what happens when they run out of targets? Mathammer would tell you it's pointless to take a single blaster in a gunboat, because you're wasting all those poison shots if you're going to shoot at a tank. Experience tells you that if your raiders are ambushed and either wrecked or have to jink then you'll be glad that you've got some darklight to fire back.

TL:DR I'm not disagreeing with you that mathammer is useful, just don't expect the game to play out exactly that way.

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

Using one of your examples elsewhere Thor, look at incubi - the numbers suggest that they should be great at taking down pretty much any kind of armoured infantry. But you and I both know that the number of times you'll be able to charge a unit like that without charging through cover and therefore suffering the initiative penalty outweighs the potential damage the unit could do.

That is simply a situation of people not running the numbers for Incubi at Initiative 1 and considering the effect on the unit.

The_Burning_Eye wrote:

Mathammer would tell you it's pointless to take a single blaster in a gunboat, because you're wasting all those poison shots if you're going to shoot at a tank. Experience tells you that if your raiders are ambushed and either wrecked or have to jink then you'll be glad that you've got some darklight to fire back.

Mathhammer tells me not to take gunboats

Thor665 wrote:

Mathhammer tells me not to take gunboats

Really? I'd be interested to see those numbers? My experience is that they're very effective now they can deepstrike and rapid fire at full effectiveness into infantry units. even against marines my two have been clearing house at my club

He may have been pointing out that deepstrike and mobility are hard to model with mathhammer and are thus often undervalued compared to more bodies.

For the gunboat question, I don't run them either because I just don't see them stacking up against Venoms. For the cost of of 2 raiders with 10 warriors in each and splinter racks, you can get 3 venoms with 5 warriors in each (it is actually a 15 point difference, but that's a small price to pay for the output difference).

With the Raiders, you average 0 wounds from 24-36", 8.889 from 12-24". and 17.778 from 0-12".

With the Venoms, you average 12 wounds from 24-36", 17 from 12-24", and 22 from 0-12".

You can factor in disintegrator damage from the raiders as well if you'd like, but then you'll have to compute separately against various targets and it still won't close the wound gap from the venom squads.

Survivability wise, you have the same number of hull points but spread to 3 targets instead of 2 and you get the 5+ invulnerable save for when cover isn't an option. The bigger difference in survivability comes from staying further away though and thus out of range of more enemies.

Lastly, it offers 6 separate units for controlling objectives instead of just 4 which can help for capturing objectives and distributing your forces.