Scourge with 4 Shredders

So I'm big on Mathhammer to determine a units capability yet I'm not great at using it. I found a calculation from a blog that calculates BS4 firing Blast weapons and came out with some interesting numbers in favour of Shredders on Scourge, but I need you guys to also play around with the numbers too.

I took 2 likely scenarios for working out how many models under the 4 templates; a) enemy unit arrives via Deepstrike (all bunched up) and b) a lot less, say 4 models under the template.

BS4 hits 44% of the time, and when wounding MEQ w/ Shred, has showed up some interesting numbers to argue in favour of a unit of Scourge w/ 4 Shredders, but would like others to work things out too....

A few thoughts;

"favour of Shredders on Scourges" - compared to what? I don't take Scourges for anti-infantry purposes. Is the argument it's better for killing infantry than...a Venom? I disagree pretty firmly on that one. A Gunboat? Maybe...though I mildly doubt it, and actually consider the Gunboat pretty iffy regardless. It's certainly not better than a Razorwing.

Secondly - I think presuming 4 models under a small blast template is pretty optimistic. I guess it's doable, but usually my opponents spread out more than that, and if they didn't it means I wrecked a vehicle or they just finished an assault with a bad consolidate roll or something - which is nothing to count on to my mind.

If you want more detail on how many dudes you can expect to hit with a blast weapon, here are some numbers I crunched a while ago. Apologies for the formatting, or lack thereof.

Expected number of hits vs			Small Blast			Large Blast
5 models	---BS2---	---BS3---	---BS4---	---BS2---	---BS3---	---BS4---
In an extended line, 2" apart	0.531	0.598	0.672	0.779	0.878	0.964
In an extended line, 1.5" apart	0.545	0.626	0.716	1.522	1.739	1.976
In an extended line, 1" apart	0.578	0.68	0.789	1.556	1.796	2.055
In an extended line, 0.5" apart	1.276	1.463	1.692	1.521	1.774	2.064
In an extended line, base to base	1.274	1.48	1.742	2.274	2.651	3.101
In 3:2 ranks, 2" apart	0.563	0.664	0.759	0.854	1.007	1.138
In 3:2 ranks, 1.5" apart	0.561	0.675	0.807	2.278	2.642	3.058
In 3:2 ranks, 1" apart	0.605	0.739	0.892	2.287	2.661	3.088
In 3:2 ranks, 0.5" apart	1.99	2.262	2.626	2.188	2.542	2.989
In 3:2 ranks, base to base	1.944	2.222	2.592	2.261	2.641	3.114
7 models
All bunched in a tight circle	2.722	3.111	3.629	3.166	3.698	4.36
10 models
In single extended line, 2" apart	0.545	0.605	0.674	0.818	0.899	0.975
In single extended line, 1.5" apart	0.585	0.652	0.732	1.625	1.81	2.02
In single extended line, 1" apart	0.66	0.741	0.83	1.753	1.953	2.165
In single extended line, 0.5" apart	1.417	1.593	1.802	1.859	2.096	2.342
In single extended line, base to base	1.478	1.712	1.973	2.74	3.169	3.626
In 5:5 even ranks, 2" apart	0.692	0.777	0.85	2.252	2.541	2.836
In 5:5 even ranks, 1.5" apart	0.737	0.858	0.968	2.321	2.65	2.973
In 5:5 even ranks, 1" apart	0.783	0.958	1.119	3.092	3.574	4.081
In 5:5 even ranks, 0.5" apart	2.546	2.924	3.391	3.743	4.351	5.067
In 5:5 even ranks, base to base	2.572	2.99	3.509	4.513	5.255	6.143

(in the spirit of shameless self promotion, you can see some visualisations of the hit probability distribution within the scatter area here   )

99% of the time, you'll be shooting at targets that are spread out. Assuming a HIGH average of Creeping Darkness's hit likelihood chart, and from my anecdotal experience, most blasts that do not scatter off seem to hit 3ish models when they hit.

Placing 1 venom v the above model of 4 shredders (all 4 hit 3 models and don't scatter off... I'm being generous):

TEQ
venom: 0.889       shredders: 1.944

MEQ
venom: 1.778       shredders: 3.889

GEQ
venom: 3.556       shredders: 7.78

Again, realize that if I know you have 4 shredders deep striking or in range, my blast-prone units are going to be rope-thin so you're getting 3 models at best and scattering off target completely >50% of the time. I can't spread my models thin to react to a venom spitting poison at me.

2 venoms are at least mathematically superior to shredder scourge in most situations and kabalite splinterboats do a darn good job at AI in your required troop slot. I still don't see a point to take scourges with anything other than heat lances or haywire blasters.

@Creeping Darkness - I love that math, really nice work there!

@Creeping Darkness    Wow, and my word! Great chart! Much better than the usual Anchorman "60% of the time it works everytime" sort of Mathhammer that you get online.

That is seriously amazing. Loving that chart. Only way it could be better is if it also had the numbers for twin linking. But I'm going to be coming back to the watering hole on this post for years, I can already tell.

That being said, Scourges with shredders is a mismanagement of points. There are better options for anti-infantry, and very few better options for anti-tank.

Some really great points that I totally agree with, and that data is awesome Creeping Darkness, thanks!

Cheers fellas, happy to share

My purpose in making it was to allow exactly this sort of comparison!

Thor665 wrote:

Secondly - I think presuming 4 models under a small blast template is pretty optimistic. I guess it's doable, but usually my opponents spread out more than that, and if they didn't it means I wrecked a vehicle or they just finished an assault with a bad consolidate roll or something - which is nothing to count on to my mind.

That was my thought, too. In my experience, it's rare for a small blast to catch more than 2 models.


The other aspect is range. Shredders have a mere 12" range and, even with the Scourge's flight, you're only bringing that up to 24".

So, for a start, you're putting your scourges in considerable danger just to fire these weapons.

Then, you have the problem that you might find your opponent bunched up... but you're too far away to take advantage of it. If he lands more than 24" away from your scourges, you're screwed already. And, if you want to shoot passengers you just forced to disembark, you'd better hope you positioned your scourges before you even knew said vehicle would die.

As a comparison, my Leman Russ Executioner can put out 5 plasma cannon shots at 36" (and can move 6" and still fire all of them). So, any deep-strikers would need to land more than 42" away to be safe - almost twice the distance. Then, if something happens that I wasn't expecting when I moved it, I still have 36" range with which to select a different target.

@1++ I can understand the idea to use shredder. It just seems like a fun idea ;-) but I would rather spend more points on a Trueborn squad in a venom for two reasons:
1) scourges exchange the shardcarbine with the shredder. That's a better weapon than the standard splinter rifle.
2) I have 12 extra poison shots from the venom ;-)

Venoms are not the #1 best anti-infantry in the DE list but they are (possibly) the #1 used unit for anti-infantry.

For <12" range anti-infantry a gunboat is WAY better than shredders for killing. They're very points efficient for killing troops. You'd be better served deep striking a gunboat with it's extra lance than you would with shredder scourges.

If you want to use scourges for anti-infantry then splinter canons and larger squads (8-10) are the way to go. They're more cost effective than Venoms at killing troops.

If you're looking for short-ranged anti-troop killing then you want gunboats and/or splinterscourges. If you want maximised points efficiency for killing troops then you also want gunboats/splinterscourges. If you want long-ranged killing or you prefer to duck-and-weave and snipe at enemy units then you want Venoms for anti-infantry, either splinterborn in Venoms or naked warriors.

The use of different units for anti-infantry in the DE list comes down to your strategy. Using either gunboats or scourges as anti-infantry requires you to get into the face of your opponent, dictating you operate 12" or 18" from their lines. Being so close means you need to keep them protected or throw enough threats into the mix that something will survive. Rolling with Venoms dictates a more typical strategy of sitting back at sniping at units, taking them apart surgically turn-by-turn.

The problem with shredders is that they're very close ranged and template weapons. It's very hard to mathhammer the efficiency of blasts because they're entirely situational. I think they might have some value if you can guarantee you're fighting a horde of tightly packed troops. They might have some utility in counter-deepstriking, pouncing on enemy strikers and hitting them when they're tightly packed. But their optimal operational range is too low to be of real value when points are so valuable in a list.