I had something for Cerve but I completely forgot, I'll just leave you guys with this (spoilers: 2 DE in top5, taking 1st out of 79): https://www.40kstats.com/ratcon2021
I will be following the meta closely for the next couple of months. I have made my predictions quite public, quite loudly, but hey, you don't need to listen to me. Let's just continue to monitor tournament results, data and rely on the wisdom from GT-level DE players from around the world over time to confirm what I've predicted.
Out of curiosity I looked through BCP tournament results today to gauge what impact DE have had on the competitive scene. There were a decent number of top four finishes and even some 1st place finishes, such at the aforementioned Australian Ratcon and the Fabricators Forge GT where the top DE player beat TJ Lannigan to win. Additionally, Nick Nanavatti also placed top three at a pretty stacked Warzone Atlanta GT. So it looks like we’re definitely strong but not Iron Hands-level of clearly broken which is, I think a good spot to be in. I think good players will still be doing well competitively with this book well into 9th edition due to the sheer number of viable builds and combinations.
I had something for Cerve but I completely forgot, I'll just leave you guys with this (spoilers: 2 DE in top5, taking 1st out of 79): https://www.40kstats.com/ratcon2021
I will be following the meta closely for the next couple of months. I have made my predictions quite public, quite loudly, but hey, you don't need to listen to me. Let's just continue to monitor tournament results, data and rely on the wisdom from GT-level DE players from around the world over time to confirm what I've predicted.
Out of curiosity I looked through BCP tournament results today to gauge what impact DE have had on the competitive scene. There were a decent number of top four finishes and even some 1st place finishes, such at the aforementioned Australian Ratcon and the Fabricators Forge GT where the top DE player beat TJ Lannigan to win. Additionally, Nick Nanavatti also placed top three at a pretty stacked Warzone Atlanta GT. So it looks like we’re definitely strong but not Iron Hands-level of clearly broken which is, I think a good spot to be in. I think good players will still be doing well competitively with this book well into 9th edition due to the sheer number of viable builds and combinations.
Right, so, I believe the results we are seeing currently is that good players are able to utilize a good book to do well in tournaments. This logically concludes that until this suddenly becomes NOT the case, this prediction remains accurate.
Admech is up next, then Sisters. Then who knows how many books and at what speed. There is one constant though: We have a solid book, with many competitive choices, so many that I would say that it's going to take us months to wholly wrap our heads around it and for others to unlock a true potential. I'm also proclaiming that we will not have a one build-wins all for the duration of the book's lifecycle. The closest thing we have to a standout right now is Cult of Strife but literally nothing else.
During this same timeframe, others will be building tech and fitting in counter-DE into their lists and the dance continues. However, that will not change what I've said: 1. We are meta-impacting, meta-defining, 2. We are a high-tier T1 army and 3. Tiering and placement is not the same. A crap player driving a good list does not make the tier.
So, @The Strange Dark One, or Nyarlathotep duder, I hate the quote system on this forum, so please forgive the lack of quotes. I'll address using topics.
On the topic of "It's too early". I just don't agree with this, because I think when we have the data, when you have trends, when you have information from live events, pro player feedback, and the community's anecdotes, you can and should make predictions. Every modern company does this, and they hire experts to do this. The most important word there is the "experts". For me, this is just a simple word of saying someone who has domain knowledge and the experience to back it up. In fact, that's why certain professions even exist these days.. not that this is my profession (well, it kinda is, I'm TPM IRL).
On the topic of "unless you have a crystal ball", "meta maturity" and "balancing": I agree with you in that I don't think GW will ever not capitalize on monetizing their game. They can't fast-patch, DLC (lol Book of Rust) or update the game life. In a computer game you can, but this book is more about the gaming aspect and the hobby aspect is deeply rooted. In fact, I would say that the gaming portion probably makes up for 20% of not all of gross revenue for the company, and that's from harder to quantify aspects such as tournament participation, indirect marketing avenue (streamers offering free marketing) and other more nebulous aspects.
Yes, I also agree that the meta will never fully mature until much later into a product's lifecycle, using SC is a good example. The game is still being played today and people are STILL discovering crap, it's insane. But for 40K, not only is this realistic, it's just to possible because of the speed of books being released and how it impacts the meta every time. But also changing of editions, older or newer books being good/bad.
However, however, here are some things that we know that WILL NOT change. The following is TRUE: > Poison is back and meta relevant, this will change how people build lists > Lances are back and meta relevant, this will change how people build lists > We have extremely efficient and powerful MSU choices, both in shooting and in melee, and in HQ and Objsec form (to change this, especially for points, would be to destroy the glasshammer motif) > We are difficult to prepare for: With a larger array of competitive options that are viable (just look at the winning lists above), this adds a multiplier to what will be successful in the hands of a good player. Due the number variance being larger, this also means that we're harder to prepare against in a tournament. ... there are more minor ones, but to save time, these are the big standouts.
Until one of these things changes, or is proven FALSE, then we are currently a competitive standout in the meta. The prediction can be deduced to just this.
Lastly, your third point about "naivety": You can call it what you want, but there's a high chance that while some players might not have considered all possible combinations, we have access now to a whole slew of different viewpoints and ideas inaccessible before. We have data, we have people, we have youtube/twitch, player houses for christ sakes, and others to confirm predictions. I can very well compare us in terms of offerings to another book that's currently very similar to the above TRUE statements and see how we compare. A closer look can find us similar to Sisters, or Harlequins, and both of them have been performing consistently in top tables.
There are two things that matter now before all else: Time and data. Mark my words, and the date, and we'll revisit this thread in 6 months from now. We will still be the meta-defining, powerful army that I said we are, because that's what experience tells me. Let's see how well we do.
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Last edited by HERO on Mon Apr 12 2021, 20:36; edited 1 time in total
Really? I don't see any heat. I see intelligent arguments. I just stand firm on the notion that someone cannot make predictions, I think that's absurdity.
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The Strange Dark One Wych
Posts : 881 Join date : 2014-08-22 Location : Private subrealm of the Eldritch Skies Kabal.
Really? I don't see any heat. I see intelligent arguments. I just stand firm on the notion that someone cannot make predictions, I think that's absurdity.
Me neither, I think it's fair to have opinions and explain where you are coming from. And I don't mind a little teasing
I would probably much more inclined to agree with Hero if I hadn't got burnt by GW in the past. I seriously expect GW to come up with some kind of bullshit that derails the system that they have carefully created so far (hello Marine Codex 2: Electric Boogaloo). My main question is, will this be towards the end of the edition or during half its lifetime?
HERO wrote:
There are two things that matter now before all else: Time and data. Mark my words, and the date, and we'll revisit this thread in 6 months from now. We will still be the meta-defining, powerful army that I said we are, because that's what experience tells me. Let's see how well we do.
By the rate of new releases so far that's what, 2.5 new codices? Okay, I stop now xD
I actually agree for the time frame of 6 months. I don't expect something earth-shattering that massively invalidates our toolset. However, past editions have lived 3 years, so there's plenty of time until 10th. I'm very sceptical about predictions around the halftime of the edition and beyond.
I would imagine that faction updates with a larger player base (or larger audiance) will shake things up more than us. Sisters and Ad Mech will have far more broken/news worthy updates than us ( Fisheyes Prediction* )
Honestly, we are just a circus sideshow. Let the Marines get the flashy releases and updates, while we quietly raid the edges of realspace. I am happy, and thats really all I care about.
Really? I don't see any heat. I see intelligent arguments. I just stand firm on the notion that someone cannot make predictions, I think that's absurdity.
Me neither, I think it's fair to have opinions and explain where you are coming from. And I don't mind a little teasing
I would probably much more inclined to agree with Hero if I hadn't got burnt by GW in the past. I seriously expect GW to come up with some kind of bullshit that derails the system that they have carefully created so far (hello Marine Codex 2: Electric Boogaloo). My main question is, will this be towards the end of the edition or during half its lifetime?
HERO wrote:
There are two things that matter now before all else: Time and data. Mark my words, and the date, and we'll revisit this thread in 6 months from now. We will still be the meta-defining, powerful army that I said we are, because that's what experience tells me. Let's see how well we do.
By the rate of new releases so far that's what, 2.5 new codices? Okay, I stop now xD
I actually agree for the time frame of 6 months. I don't expect something earth-shattering that massively invalidates our toolset. However, past editions have lived 3 years, so there's plenty of time until 10th. I'm very sceptical about predictions around the halftime of the edition and beyond.
I think it's fair to assess a snapshot, or at least monthly, or at least at the very min after every new book.
I would be willing to pin this thread every new book and help shed some light into predictions.
[...] The notion of: "It's too early" is the general excuse of the inexperienced, unintelligent and weak-minded. Players who have wisdom accumulated in the game, have played competitively and have actively pursue their desire to win with practice games, list building and active discussions are always going to be in stronger positions to make judgement calls than casual players.
I really like that you call me inexperienced, unintelligent and weak-minded. That reaaaally makes me want to listen to your arguments because I can finally shed my weak self and become a true gamer, just like you.
And being a playing during a dang pandemic isn´t especially helpful in getting more games.
But thanks for enlightening this weak-minded archon, I will gladly bow to your superior knowledge.
[...] The notion of: "It's too early" is the general excuse of the inexperienced, unintelligent and weak-minded. Players who have wisdom accumulated in the game, have played competitively and have actively pursue their desire to win with practice games, list building and active discussions are always going to be in stronger positions to make judgement calls than casual players.
I really like that you call me inexperienced, unintelligent and weak-minded. That reaaaally makes me want to listen to your arguments because I can finally shed my weak self and become a true gamer, just like you.
And being a playing during a dang pandemic isn´t especially helpful in getting more games.
But thanks for enlightening this weak-minded archon, I will gladly bow to your superior knowledge.
I don't recall calling you anything?
But, I don't withdraw anything I said about people who dismiss the use of predictions or anyone who performs them. It's a very sore point for me. Regardless of opinion, that's just not how the modern world works. There's entire professions dedicated around it, everyone that has authoritative knowledge into subjects do them (from sports, to stocks, to esports, to this), and its wildly accepted in society as the norm.
But yes, if you feel hurt by this comment and took it out of context and as a direct, personal attack, then lol, get a grip.
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Skulnbonz Hekatrix
Posts : 1041 Join date : 2012-07-13 Location : Tampa
Predictions of what tier we are now or will be in the future are a joke. There is no science behind it, no facts to back it up, it is just an opinion.
Predictions of what tier we are now or will be in the future are a valid way to find out where we are in the Warhammer universe, and how we potentially stack up against other armies widely acknowledged as powerful or strong.
Both of the above sentences are 100% true.
Arguing about it will not change anyone's opinion, as both parties are correct.
I would ease up on the rhetoric about calling other players "inexperienced", especially if the one calling people that dropped out of competitive play for a LONG time, and just got back into it. Just sayin.
_________________ Never fistfight with ugly people. They have nothing to lose.
They cannot both be true they are mutually exclusive.
I'm totally open to argue that a prediction is correct/false or lacking neccessariy data but calling them pointless opinions (or the equivalent) is just short sighted.
After winning an invitational RTT over the weekend against some top players I can say that definitively yes...we are a top tier army now. My list used 20 point reavers and I did not take the razorflail succubus. I purposely avoided broken things that I thought would get nerfed and still tabled 2 opponents. Not saying I am the best player I just know how to play dark eldar.
But Ad Mech is just around the corner and I am terrified of how that codex will roll out. A new sisters book would also be horrifying as well. Also, players will learn to adapt to our turn 2 charges eventually. So we have to adapt to them. Maybe don't charge in until turn 3, or hit them in waves.
This is a strong codex and in the right hands it can win a GT.
Skulnbonz Hekatrix
Posts : 1041 Join date : 2012-07-13 Location : Tampa
They cannot both be true they are mutually exclusive.
I'm totally open to argue that a prediction is correct/false or lacking necessary data but calling them pointless opinions (or the equivalent) is just short sighted.
You do realize that a "tier" is just a prediction, right? Ever see power rankings from the NFL? It changes every week even though the players, coaches and teams are the same. It changes because someone loses and someone wins. If this was a dependable gauge of who is the best, it would NOT change. But it does.
Power rankings (which is what we are talking about here) are used to predict future standings. I get it. But don't think they are the end-all be-all. ESPECIALLY in Warhammer where the skill and talent of the player is more important than what army they choose to use.
Rather than powerranking armies, it would be more accurate to power rank players.
Not being short sighted, just being realistic.
_________________ Never fistfight with ugly people. They have nothing to lose.
I don't know how NFL uses tiers but I'd be very surprised if they functioned the same way as those of Cardgames, boardgames and miniature games.
Unlike players in sports our miniatures have fixed values that are absolute and comparable. There are also more Drukhari players playing similar lists or at list lidts containing the same things, as far as I understand sports players are generally not on multiple teams.
If you are trying to use sports analysys I can understand the confusion.
Power ranking players is not helpful since the player and the faction and list they play is a singular entity.
I'm better with Chaos than Drukhari because of practice. Would I get better results with Drukhari than Chaos if I switched the playtime, would I do better if I switched lists? That's the point of interest.
After winning an invitational RTT over the weekend against some top players I can say that definitively yes...we are a top tier army now. My list used 20 point reavers and I did not take the razorflail succubus. I purposely avoided broken things that I thought would get nerfed and still tabled 2 opponents. Not saying I am the best player I just know how to play dark eldar.
But Ad Mech is just around the corner and I am terrified of how that codex will roll out. A new sisters book would also be horrifying as well. Also, players will learn to adapt to our turn 2 charges eventually. So we have to adapt to them. Maybe don't charge in until turn 3, or hit them in waves.
This is a strong codex and in the right hands it can win a GT.
Tell me more about this
The FLG guys are going to also talk about power rankings soon now that the new book is out. We got some prelimary data from 40kstats and BCP. The best part is that in the next couple of weeks, we'll have several super-majors coming up in the US (AC, TX). A lot of high-level players have already made their predictions pretty loud. Art of War and Fabricated Forge has their own RTTs to draw out the army's effectiveness.
Oh look, another batch of guys doing predictions. What is this nonsense?
On the argument about tiers and power ranking players, dudes, you have to see the difference between the two right? Both can be used, but they're very different. Tier, in this case (for our hobby), is the overall cost-effectiveness of your book with its toolbox against common meta threats. This meta ever-moves and evolves. What you have that is cost-effective now, might not be in the future. What you counter or check now, might not be in the future as others get their books. This is why video games have tier rankings that talk about units, characters, factions, and not players.
Power Rankings for players is like MMR, PR or ELO. It has nothing to do with Tier. The Tier is talking about the book, the army, the faction. It has nothing to do with what army he plays, it's how well he places against other people in a ranked, competitive setting.
You can be a garbage player and pilot a Tier 1 army into the ground. You can be a high, power-ranked player, who can take a Tier 2 army to the podium. The two are separate, please stop confusing the two.
Side-note: "most powerful", "strongest", "best", ARMY at times are comparable to "tier". Like this vid by Auspex Tactics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XBlPdknPHk
After winning an invitational RTT over the weekend against some top players I can say that definitively yes...we are a top tier army now. My list used 20 point reavers and I did not take the razorflail succubus. I purposely avoided broken things that I thought would get nerfed and still tabled 2 opponents. Not saying I am the best player I just know how to play dark eldar.
But Ad Mech is just around the corner and I am terrified of how that codex will roll out. A new sisters book would also be horrifying as well. Also, players will learn to adapt to our turn 2 charges eventually. So we have to adapt to them. Maybe don't charge in until turn 3, or hit them in waves.
This is a strong codex and in the right hands it can win a GT.
Tell me more about this
The FLG guys are going to also talk about power rankings soon now that the new book is out. We got some prelimary data from 40kstats and BCP. The best part is that in the next couple of weeks, we'll have several super-majors coming up in the US (AC, TX). A lot of high-level players have already made their predictions pretty loud. Art of War and Fabricated Forge has their own RTTs to draw out the army's effectiveness.
Oh look, another batch of guys doing predictions. What is this nonsense?
On the argument about tiers and power ranking players, dudes, you have to see the difference between the two right? Both can be used, but they're very different. Tier, in this case (for our hobby), is the overall cost-effectiveness of your book with its toolbox against common meta threats. This meta ever-moves and evolves. What you have that is cost-effective now, might not be in the future. What you counter or check now, might not be in the future as others get their books. This is why video games have tier rankings that talk about units, characters, factions, and not players.
Power Rankings for players is like MMR, PR or ELO. It has nothing to do with Tier. The Tier is talking about the book, the army, the faction. It has nothing to do with what army he plays, it's how well he places against other people in a ranked, competitive setting.
You can be a garbage player and pilot a Tier 1 army into the ground. You can be a high, power-ranked player, who can take a Tier 2 army to the podium. The two are separate, please stop confusing the two.
Side-note: "most powerful", "strongest", "best", ARMY at times are comparable to "tier". Like this vid by Auspex Tactics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6XBlPdknPHk
Ill post a quick summary in the Real Space Raids section of the forum in a bit.
Yeah, Cael’s full re-roll aura is almost certainly going away and will also be restricted to Core. Speaking of which, I think, as is the trend in 9th, pretty much all of their vehicles will not be Core. Which makes their Dakkabots, Las Cannon Chickens, and Scorpius Disintegator’s a little less terrifying.
I would also expect Wrath of Mars to be changed or taken away entirely. And no more 2++/3++ for those pesky Electro-priests.
, forgot to thanks Hero for the quality product! I saw the video days ago lol
Anyway, after some games and some toughts, I firmly think that we're not broken in mechanics, but our prices are a bit too low. It's not like 400 points as I saw in some silly reports, but 150ish yes, definitely. Succubus should be 90-100 Incubi at 18-20 Hellions at 20 (because they ARE different Reavers) Wracks 10 (12 Hemox) I'm not sure on Raiders, I belive they're fine if you bump up everything else. Venoms should be -10 imho, because right now only Wracks get 2 weapons in 5. 3x5 Incubi and 1 Succubus would mean +80/100 points just like that. And it would be fine imho.
And CoS should NOT been allowed on Matched Play. Because if your Codex have 11 named Obsessions, with 1 trait/relic/stratagem each, picking 1 of these and giving it +3 traits, +4 relics and +10 stratagems is just stupid for the inner balance. Right now, playing any non-Strife wychcult obsession means being underdog, which is really bad game design. F*ck Rust! Rust-Strife would be fine if your ENTIRE ARMY would have been <STRIFE>. In that case you're writing a full flavour and competitive set of rules. On Campaign Strife has more light? Nice, make rules for a full Strife Army. That would be more balance imho.
Yes, in short, not a fan of the day1 DLC making Strife the dominant cult. 4/5 best strats in that book, 1 of the best relics, 1 of the best WL traits, it's literally absurd. Never really seen that before in a minis company. With that said, while I find it a bit absurd, it's here to stay and we can't really expect events to say, "sorry, can't play with it".
As for cost and points, I don't think we're going to see much changes until we have hard data from events (at a GT level) to confirm that our book is rolling through everyone else. I just don't think that's going to happen, in the sense that we're going to ROLL everyone. I'm not expecting like 60+ win rates from DE here, I'm seeing more of a 55 with it eventually leveling to 50 against other Tier1/2 armies, and possibly lower once people figure crap out and start adding anti-DE tech.
Yes, in short, not a fan of the day1 DLC making Strife the dominant cult. 4/5 best strats in that book, 1 of the best relics, 1 of the best WL traits, it's literally absurd. Never really seen that before in a minis company. With that said, while I find it a bit absurd, it's here to stay and we can't really expect events to say, "sorry, can't play with it".
As for cost and points, I don't think we're going to see much changes until we have hard data from events (at a GT level) to confirm that our book is rolling through everyone else. I just don't think that's going to happen, in the sense that we're going to ROLL everyone. I'm not expecting like 60+ win rates from DE here, I'm seeing more of a 55 with it eventually leveling to 50 against other Tier1/2 armies, and possibly lower once people figure crap out and start adding anti-DE tech.
I don’t disagree with your overall point, but the "Day 1 DLC" statement is a bit of a misnomer. The Drukhari book was originally supposed to be released in, what, December? They came out on the same day by happenstance, not by design.
Anyway, on to the subject at hand, what do you figure anti-DE tech will be? Part of our strength is the diversity of units. For instance, wracks suffer against multi-damage weapons because it neutralizes FNP, wyches suffer from overwatch (unless Strife) or psychic powers that turn off their invul saves. 2 very different vulnerabilities.
Is it simply bringing enough anti-tank to take out Raiders before they get close?
I feel like whichever way the meta shifts, we'll be able to tailor our lists to compensate. Not that we'll remain dominant necessarily, but we won't suffer the same fall from grace that more homogenous armies can.
Yes, in short, not a fan of the day1 DLC making Strife the dominant cult. 4/5 best strats in that book, 1 of the best relics, 1 of the best WL traits, it's literally absurd. Never really seen that before in a minis company. With that said, while I find it a bit absurd, it's here to stay and we can't really expect events to say, "sorry, can't play with it".
As for cost and points, I don't think we're going to see much changes until we have hard data from events (at a GT level) to confirm that our book is rolling through everyone else. I just don't think that's going to happen, in the sense that we're going to ROLL everyone. I'm not expecting like 60+ win rates from DE here, I'm seeing more of a 55 with it eventually leveling to 50 against other Tier1/2 armies, and possibly lower once people figure crap out and start adding anti-DE tech.
I don’t disagree with your overall point, but the "Day 1 DLC" statement is a bit of a misnomer. The Drukhari book was originally supposed to be released in, what, December? They came out on the same day by happenstance, not by design.
Anyway, on to the subject at hand, what do you figure anti-DE tech will be? Part of our strength is the diversity of units. For instance, wracks suffer against multi-damage weapons because it neutralizes FNP, wyches suffer from overwatch (unless Strife) or psychic powers that turn off their invul saves. 2 very different vulnerabilities.
Is it simply bringing enough anti-tank to take out Raiders before they get close?
I feel like whichever way the meta shifts, we'll be able to tailor our lists to compensate. Not that we'll remain dominant necessarily, but we won't suffer the same fall from grace that more homogenous armies can.
I only semi-joke when I call it a Day 1 DLC. At its core, despite its untimely arrival, it (Rust) still held the keys to the best builds and pigeon-holded us into a single Cult for competitive play. That's.. just not great. Obvious miss by GW.
As for the anti-DE tech, I talked about this briefly in the video but basically anything that has cheap fodder who can play attrition with us, and cheap indir Blast, as well as mediocre-levels of shooting who can pop Raiders from range. Anything that can shoot out our transports and then nuke what's inside has me greatly worried. AT that has a lot of ablative wounds is also troublesome because they have cover, which makes them difficult to remove with ranged poison, and most of the time they stick around for lances. This means that a better platform from shooting at them is Dissies, but this means that you're not taking a lance and spending points where the lance is generally better vs. more targets in the meta (monsters, vehicles).
Therefore, I would put anti-DE tech into the following buckets: Plentiful, multi-shot mediocre shooting Ablative wounds AT, mostly infantry-based Cheap, indirect Blast
You know who have these things in droves? Admech, Tau, IG, Orks, other armies have these as well, but less so. I would be deathly afraid of facing a IG player R1 at an event with a line of weapon teams, 6x10 guardsman and a mortars, with any DE list, especially because all of the above is like 25% of their army lol. Not only is the above generally good against the way the meta's going, but it's exceptionally strong against DE. Remember leafblower carparks in the past? Not so much of that now but the principle still holds. DE absolutely hate and is weak against things don't necessarily trade up against MEQ, but is equal to or trades well against our paper airplanes and T3 naked girls, or 3+ Incubi out of transports. These units are generally DIRT cheap in books that have them which makes them GOLD against us. Lasguns? Absolute garbage vs. Marines, gold against us. Autocannons? same thing. Hell, even heavy stubbers. Even BS3+ Bolters is value-city against nearly everything we have out of transports.
We also completely just eat psychic attacks, which means that previously favorable statistics like downing Mortarion goes out the door once -1 hit is throw in. That's a bit of an extreme example but you know what I mean. I don't think that really effects us as much as ASL from Interomancy for example. This has always been our weakness, but we were able to mitigate it with CW support in the past; not so much now.
Oh the last point, about us having to adjust as enemies adjust to us, yes, agreed completely. I'm currently helping a group of DE/GT players gear up for Atlantic City as well as 3 TX-based super majors (Dallas, San Antonio, Lone Star), with just big brain callouts since I can't go anywhere (new bebe). In a army with a limited roster like Harlequins, there's not much to call out. But for other armies, there's going to be some tech to watch out for.
Subject: Re: Drukhari Tier Predictions 
Mon Apr 12 2021, 19:47
