Chapter Approved

So with chapter approved coming up, what nerfs do you expect?

Ravagers +10 pts
lance +5 pts
disintegrators +10pts
Kabalites +1pt

Writ of the living muse no longer works on vehicles.

I don't think we'll see that much of an overreaction.

Ravager points hike - Except 15-20 points
Reasoning: I don't think we will see a points hike to Dissies because it would be out of line with Aeldari.  Game design calls for more uniformity so we will likely see an increase to Ravagers but not to Dissies or Lances because Eldar has 15 pt Starcannons and 20 pt Bright Lances.  Besides, you don't see Raiders with Dissies running the show.

Grots/Talos - 5/10 points hike
Reasoning: Overperformance

That's all.  If GW is smart, that would be all that will need to change when it comes to addressing the overperforming units.  Under-performing units elsewhere can need a points increase, but the most prevalent units in the competitive meta that overperform needs to be examined.

I'd be surprised if Kabalites went up in points, given that (unless I'm mistaken) they've barely seen any use in tournaments.

They're cheap, sure, but they're also absolute garbage outside of the one guy holding the Blaster.

I hope Hellions get some love.

Dis cannons +5pts
Grots +2-3pts
Talos +10pts

BUT, its not all about nerfs, some buffs i hope Hellions, Incubi, and Court get a nice little buff

Ravagers and/or Dissie Cannons, Grots, Talos all seem like obvious nerf candidates still.

I think Venoms are on the table, as well, even though they're not our biggest problem units.

I think Talos +10 points.

No other nerfs.

I HOPE:
Incubi Klaives go to 2 wounds (which is what they should be)
Hellions desperately need some attention.a 4++ "jink" save versus shooting would help.

Beasts and court are useless as well.

Skulnbonz wrote:

I think Talos +10 points.

No other nerfs.

At this point we have a fairly well deserved reputation as the strongest Codex in the game. I'm pretty sure we should expect more than a single nerf, unfortunately.

anyone knows if there are forgeworld changes in as well?
i was hoping for the poor tantalus to go back now that we have cheap ass knights running around everywhere...

I would expect dark lances and disintegrators to swap point costs.

In tourney lists, no one takes lances. Swapping the costs might make taking a few lances seem a bit more attractive.

I still don't think we'll see uniformity and design breaking with a hike to Dissies. Ravagers are what's being used in competitive lists across Aeldari lists. Ravagers will increase in costs, not dissies because of my previous mentioned points.

Grotesques are going to get hit with the nerf bat so hard they'll enter low earth orbit. Ravagers and Talos might see some wiggles but it's unlikely. Smart money says they'll arbitrarily increase the cost of something random, like Khymera or Wracks or something stupid like that, while everything that no one uses will see a decrease in points but not enough to make them actually effective on the table top like last year's Court adjustments.

I also expect the Wraithknight to be reduced in points again and Guardian platforms to go up in price. Dire Avengers and Warp Spiders might drop a hair, Shining Spears will probably get bumped up.

Harlequins will somehow get made even more irrelevant by an oppressive increase to the cost of Haywire Cannons with nothing done to address the balance issues the change to Fly caused or the fact that you're paying 20-30 points for a T3 1W model with a 4++ that loses a fight to cultists.

Also expect Corsairs to get absolutely Jack because GW hates FW.

edit:

Quote :

I would expect dark lances and disintegrators to swap point costs.

In tourney lists, no one takes lances. Swapping the costs might make taking a few lances seem a bit more attractive.

I second this motion.

So for something completely random I predict Drazhar is going to see some changes, nothing that actually makes him great, but he will see a points decrease by probably 20, his aura will change to "any to hit roll of a 6 made by friendly <incubi> models within 6" of this model generates an additional hit"
Because the one guy at Warhammer HQ that played him once looked at it and said "what the ... He's almost worthless as he is now" and that will be all the buffs the DE get ... Oh and something something something URGHULS!!! Cause they have to sell the new plastic models... But in general I agree with the previously posted nerfs and readjustments.

I don't expect Bright Lances and Starcannons to swap points, so therefore, I don't expect Dissies and Lances to swap points.

DevilDoll wrote:

anyone knows if there are forgeworld changes in as well?
i was hoping for the poor tantalus to go back now that we have cheap ass knights running around everywhere...

GW has shown they dont like FW for normal games, it wont be changed sadly.

Hopefully FW gets a real dedicated rules writer and fixes everything him/herself.

I actually hope Disintegrator cannons go up 5-7 p.
Jetfighter could well pay for the missiles like the bomber does and thus go up a bit in point cost.
Grots/Talos: Would they still be as popular (i.e. efficient) if not for the PoF buff? Who plays anything else than PoF? Otherwise, perhaps toning down PoF to be as mediocre as the other coven obsessions is wiser? They would still have a good relic, trait and stratagem.

One can always hope for a more or less slight change to heat lances, hellions, succubus, cronos, etc. No expectations though.

Prophets of Flesh Obsession is what needs changing, it is hurting diversity in list decision making. Hopefully it changes from +1 Inv to re-rolling Inured to Suffering rolls or just something that provides some added durability but not that much added durability.

Otherwise I think maybe Disintegrators will go to 20pts, but I can see them staying 15 as well...they are already very limited compared to Dark Lances.

I think those are the likely possible changes, if any. But I don't think we're broken, and so I don't think we'll get fixing.

my personal wish/ expectation would be
ravagers, talos, grots +10
court buff
incubi -4
actual rules for drazhar and not that practical joke we have now or -20
prophets change
hellions buff or - some points
beastmaster and beasts? has anyone seen them? they need much love
AND the raiding party überdetachment needs +2 cp

How is it that people are STILL saying that Dissies will go up in price? lol

What logic tree are you people following to say that Dissies will go up and NOT Ravagers?

HERO wrote:

How is it that people are STILL saying that Dissies will go up in price? lol

What logic tree are you people following to say that Dissies will go up and NOT Ravagers?

• One of our problem units is Black Heart Ravagers with Disintegrator Cannons, as evidenced by e.g. a huge percentage of Eldar tournament lists having them in.
  
• Black Heart has already been nerfed through the Agents of Vect change, so we're likely looking at either a unit or wargear tweak.
  
• Ravagers with Dark Lances are not causing problems.
  
• When other vehicles are taken, they are almost always equipped with Disintegrator Cannons as well.
  
• There is no reason for inter-list similarity in points costing, as differences in synergies should be taken into account - e.g., Starcannons don't have the same access to cheap platforms and to-hit and to-wound rerolls that Disintegrator Cannons do.
  

Which, when put together, makes me think it's more likely (not certain!) that Disintegrators will be the nerf target, and not Ravagers.

Burnage wrote:

HERO wrote:

How is it that people are STILL saying that Dissies will go up in price? lol

What logic tree are you people following to say that Dissies will go up and NOT Ravagers?

• One of our problem units is Black Heart Ravagers with Disintegrator Cannons, as evidenced by e.g. a huge percentage of Eldar tournament lists having them in.
  
• Black Heart has already been nerfed through the Agents of Vect change, so we're likely looking at either a unit or wargear tweak.
  
• Ravagers with Dark Lances are not causing problems.
  
• When other vehicles are taken, they are almost always equipped with Disintegrator Cannons as well.
  
• There is no reason for inter-list similarity in points costing, as differences in synergies should be taken into account - e.g., Starcannons don't have the same access to cheap platforms and to-hit and to-wound rerolls that Disintegrator Cannons do.
  

Which, when put together, makes me think it's more likely (not certain!) that Disintegrators will be the nerf target, and not Ravagers.

You left out a few important things:
-Black Heart, Ravagers, Dissies, in a SPEARHEAD detachment that is running the competitive circuit. This gives them the ability to splash and unlock for every Aeldari/Ynnari list.
-Black Heart because of durability and AoV and Living Muse.

It's not Raiders with Dissies that are running the show. It's specifically this combination that needs to be addressed. The fact that Starcannons cost 15 and Bright Lances are 20 suggests that the weapons themselves were balanced with this in mind; in the sense that S6 AP-3 D3 damage and S5 AP-3 2D damage are to be 15 points. Breaking this consistency with Eldar is doubtful.

You're right on one point though: Ravagers with Bright Lances are not the issue, and increasing Ravager cost per model will make Lances on them even less desirable. However, I see this as the direction GW will take, unfortunately.

If they increase points on Dissies, they nerf Raiders and anything that can take Dissies. If they increase points on Ravagers, they specifically further nerf Ravagers with Lances, but nothing else.

HERO wrote:

How is it that people are STILL saying that Dissies will go up in price? lol

What logic tree are you people following to say that Dissies will go up and NOT Ravagers?

Well...here's the design philosophy behind that thinking:

Any time Disintegrators can be chosen as an option, Dark Lances are the alternative.

Disintegrators tend to outclass Dark Lances in damage output against *most* opponents.

Disintegrators therefore tend to be taken as an option over Dark Lances more frequently.

The decision to take a Disintegrator is weighted more favorably: their damage output is higher and their points cost is cheaper.

By making Disintegrators and Dark Lances equal in points, one of those deciding factors is removed. Now, all we have to make our choice between DL and Dissie is that one weapon is optimal against Enemy X, the other against Enemy Y.

The result of this change should be to increase the number of Dark Lances people choose to take, relative to Disintegrators. If right now the distribution is 80% Dissie and 20% Lance, a +5pts increase to a Disintegrator should change that distribution.

That's the logic behind the argument that Disintegrators could or should move to 20pts. I think it's sensible thinking, but there are also plenty of other factors at play from a design perspective.

It's not an absurd notion, though, I don't think. Though I'm open to being corrected!

I don't think 20pt Disintegrators would be a nerf to Raiders, it would just change the internal army balance and weapon distribution (and would be a big punch to my list, but hey!).

I'd actually be surprised if things like particular unit rules and (sub)faction rules get changed. It seems that if this were intended, it would be a change made in the big FAQ. CA seems to exist mainly for points tweaks, and universal changes (like the change to determining who goes first implemented in the last CA).

lcfr wrote:

Prophets of Flesh Obsession is what needs changing, it is hurting diversity in list decision making. Hopefully it changes from +1 Inv to re-rolling Inured to Suffering rolls or just something that provides some added durability but not that much added durability.

+1 to inured to suffering rolls would be reasonable. That would give them a 5+ and 5++.