Triple Heat Lance/Blaster/Dark Lance Probabilities

I made some simple Java programs to simulate how effective our various lance weapons are. The probabilities are for triples as most of our lance weaponry tend to comes in threes (ravagers, reavers and blasterbron). They take into account rolling to hit, rolling to penetrate, the damage chart roll as well as the removal of three hull points and two immobilised results wrecking a vehicle. They do not take into account vehicles with 2 or 4 hull points, open topped vehicles, skimmers moving flat out, any form of save (cover, jink, invulnerable), or suppression protection (extra armour, living metal, fortitude).

Triple Heat Lance (Inside 9" melta range):

Spoiler:

Triple Heatlances (Outside melta range):

Spoiler:

Triple Blaster/Dark lance:

Spoiler:

I hope people will find these useful.

So, Heat Lance is superior in every way? Only drawback is the short range and limited availability in the codex.

Count Adhemar wrote:

So, Heat Lance is superior in every way? Only drawback is the short range and limited availability in the codex.

Other then against ceremite plating and wave serpents (or anything else that prevents you from using melta).

It takes 6 blasters/dark lances to be as effective as 3 heat lances against AV12, 13 and 14.

It takes 5 blasters/dark lances to be as effective as 3 heat lances against AV11.

It takes 4 to 5 blasters/dark lances to be as effective as 3 heat lances against AV10.

Note: the above are in terms of wreking/destroying a vehicle.

EDIT: I have added, probabilities for being outside melta range with the heat lances and the probabilities against open topped targets (for those of you ho like DE civil wars, and fighting orks or necrons).

That's why I love me some scourges with 4 heat lances

I always found their scourges squishiness to be a problematic with heat lances.

At melta range this is not really a surprise but I would not go so far as to say you need X many dark light weapons to be as effective... Range and platform are huge factors

Massaen wrote:

At melta range this is not really a surprise but I would not go so far as to say you need X many dark light weapons to be as effective... Range and platform are huge factors

I don't think I ever implied that. I was just saying that it takes X dark light weapons to have the same percent chance of destroying/wrecking a vehicles as Y heat lances.

Sourges are pretty squishy, that 4+ just often isn't good enough.
But I use them any way

This leads me to a question on the reapers and the use of heat lances:

When using them at melta range, how often do you find that they are destroyed the round following due to retaliatory fire? In my experience, vehicles rarely sit off alone unless you're playing IG.

Bookkeeper wrote:

This leads me to a question on the reapers and the use of heat lances:

When using them at melta range, how often do you find that they are destroyed the round following due to retaliatory fire? In my experience, vehicles rarely sit off alone unless you're playing IG.

With the large squads of 9 I have yet to find that to be a problem, thanks to the 2d6 assault move. However currently I'm experimenting with the extra safety blasters give you (ability to avoid rapid fire, flamers and assault more reliably), it's a tough choice to be honest, heatlances are a lot more reliable at taking out vehicles or at least preventing it from retaliating (and cheaper), blasters I find less reliable. The bigger disadvantage with heatlances for me is the existence of CEREMITE PLATING, making storm ravens in hover mode immune to heatlances (can only glance)!

Ultimately I think it depends on your army composition, with heat lances you need to be able to generate target saturation. You need a very aggressive army and can't afford to send in the reavers on their own.

Hope that helps.

Ceramite plating can go to the ravagers and raiders w/ dls. That still leaves reavers w/ a pretty large "everything else" category.

Yeah, that's a good point. The only thing I really find blaster superior to heat lances for is causing instant death on T4 models. Going from 9" to 18" against vehicles isn't really that helpful, as you are still going to be in range of plenty of baddies. At least with heat lances, you know there's one less vehicle you're going to have to deal with next turn,

Here are all the advantages blaster have over heatlances (on jetbikes this is) that I could think of:

-Threat range against vehicles when coming in from reserve is 30" rather then 21".
-Reaver mobility means you should be hitting side armour most of the time and rear armour if it ever gets exposed (they can't keep a front facing against every reaver squad).
-Instant kill T4 models (crisis suits and paladins come to mind).
-Ignore FNP on T4 models.
-Safely engage flamer armed fast vehicles and transports with flamer infantry (12" move 8" template = 20" range, with the heat lance this is risky).
-Less exposure to rapid fire.
-Less chance of counter assault.
-Allows the rest of the army to keep up.
-The blaster reavers are better at screening other units (as they can screen and still contribute to the battle).
-Because the front models of units get removed first it often means your effective melta range is 6-7" (as you want the heatlances at the back), meaning that your squad will always be closer than 9".
-Better against MCs.
-Don't get affected by ceremite/energy fields.
-Better against flyers as they have more range.
-Larger threat bubble.

So I believe they both have a place, with the heatlance being more reliable at getting the kill and the blaster being a more all-round and flexible weapon.

I think your probabilities are a little off. I've not got my spreadsheet with me, will check when I get home, but I'm pretty sure the probability of explode or wreck vs a 3hp vehicle in melta range of three heat lances is 50.09%. Only a little out, but made me question the rest, may want to double check your maths (could be me screwing up of course).

Drager wrote:

I think your probabilities are a little off. I've not got my spreadsheet with me, will check when I get home, but I'm pretty sure the probability of explode or wreck vs a 3hp vehicle in melta range of three heat lances is 50.09%. Only a little out, but made me question the rest, may want to double check your maths (could be me screwing up of course).

Did you take into account double immobilised being destroyed?

There was no maths involved in this, I just used a simple Java program and a random number generator to simulate 1 000 000 results (basically until the results were stable to 3 decimal places).

This is a really interesting read. I think the main point is it comes down to army list synergy which is only realised when you play test the same list a lot. I look forward to doing this and trying out the two load-outs. I like the idea of a reliable turn two vehicle buster. I often find lists with a single particular threat that becomes paramount to eliminate. However your opposing comments in favour of blasters are most thorough and appear very valid. I shall take all of this into account.