@a1elbow - allow me to explain my stance;
You keep making what I consider the common error in assessing them. Yes, there is no question in my mind that having 6 bikes is better than3 - while we're at it having 6 Wyches is better than 3, so is having 6 Venoms vs. 3, oh, and having $6 is better than $3.
Let's compare what I'm *really* saying;
"Having 6 bikes in *2 units* is better than having 6 bikes in *1 unit*"
Okay - now we're on the same page.
So - I have 2 heat lances, you have 2 heat lances - huzzah, all your talk about 1 heat lance missing or failing to penetrate is equally applicable to you.
Except I'm better - because if the first heat lance works I can fire at something else.
Potentially I could wreck two vehicles a turn - try to do that with one squad of 6 and see how far you get
So, as far as hurting the enemy - I am *clearly* superior, and I don't think there's an argument that can be made otherwise. Given equal odds, my two units of 3 will always be better at hurting the enemy than one unit of 6.
So - let's get to the actual point where 6 bikes *might* be better - and that's survivability. This is a questionable point, and is surprisingly complicated to really discuss. With toughness 4, and a 5+ save (maybe a 3+ cover save) these guys are...not really that survivable considering how much GW wants me to believe they are worth. Flamers pretty much equal - dead bikes currently (oh, for the bygone era when we had a 4+ armor save...*sigh* If bikes are in the open and didn't turbo-boost - *bolters* equal pretty much certain death. The people who support 6 bikers always tell me it's "safer" for the blasters, but let's assess that, shall we?
5 Marines w. Bolters in rapid fire range (no flamer, as that would make this too depressing)
vs. Bikes in open = 3.33 dead RJBs
vs. Bikes w. cover save from terrain = 1.66 dead RJBs
vs. Bikes w. turbo-boost cover save = 1.11 dead RJBs
I think this is pretty much the *minimum* sort of damage we can expect. Seriously, this is just a naked combat squad off a Tac squad with bolters - this is a super minimal and *MINOR* attempt to kill us.
The 3 man RJB unit gets wiped or loses 1-2 bikes (and risks the lance dying) = solid chance loss of 1 heat lance.
The 6 man RJB unit gets 1-4 guys dead, and pretty much unless its getting a turboboost save (unlikely on any turn after 1) will have to take a leadership test = 27.78% chance to fail a Ld test and lose both heat lances.
So - worst case for a 3 man squad is being wiped and losing 1 lance (egads!) their best chance is they lose 1 guy and have a 27.78 chance to lose one lance via whiffed morale (egads!)
Best chance for the 6 man is to lose 1 guy worst chance is to have 27.78 chance to lose two lances via whiffed morale check.
So...the 3 man is less major risk, but more assured minor risk, right?
Oh, but wait, we presumed the most minimal squad in existence fired at us. Let's say there was a flamer with them that hit everyone - or maybe 10 guys with bolters.
5 Marines w. Bolters and flamer in rapid fire range (3 man/6man)
vs. Bikes in open = 2.6 dead RJBs from Bolters 1.5/3 from flamer = 4.1/5.6
vs. Bikes w. cover save from terrain = 1.33 dead RJBs from Bolters 1.5/3 from flamer = 2.83/4.33
vs. Bikes w. turbo-boost cover save = .88 dead RJBs from Bolters 1.5/3 from flamer = 2.38/3.88
10 Marines w. Bolters in rapid fire range (no flamer)
vs. Bikes in open = 6.66 dead RJBs
vs. Bikes w. cover save from terrain = 3.32 dead RJBs
vs. Bikes w. turbo-boost cover save = 2.22 dead RJBs
In these setups - the 6 man squad is now risking BOTH lances ALL the time, sometimes twice in the same round because they have to take saves and then also have to pass the Ld test.
The 3 man continues to risk...1 lance.
So what we see here is, to my mind, a few conclusions;
1. It is very easy to kill 3 RJBs
2. It is *also* very easy to kill 6 RJBs
3. Units killing RJBs are not killing other things.
4. It will at least take 2 units to kill two units of 3 RJBs.
5. It quite likely only takes one unit to kill one unit of 6 RJBs
So, I believe it is more survivable for my RJBs in general to force the enemy to have to use two units to kill them, as opposed to one. My net gain is - it's probably harder to get rid of two heat lances from my army. My net loss is it *is* slightly easier to get rid of one...but since RJBs are soooo easy to kill, I expect my enemy will overkill them and waste effort, which I consider a reasonable trade for the slightly higher theoretical risk to my one lance/blaster/whatever.
That's my standpoint, hope it makes sense as to why I say 3 is more survivable than 6 now,
Thor.