Dark Eldar - MathHammer You Need to Know

First post here.  New to Dark Eldar and I have definitely found the army that fits my play style.  I've always preferred a very aggressive army that takes tactics to avoid a quick death.  The other thing that I've grown to love about the Dark Eldar is statistics.  I'm a big fan of math hammer and found that it plays VERY well into Dark Eldar.  As a player, I typically try to avoid relying on the dice as much as possible and from a statistics point of view, I always keep in mind that the law statistics will always even out in the long run.

That being said, I've read through all of the Tactics threads that were stickied and found them VERY useful.  The two things that really stuck in my head were Target Prioritization and avoiding overkill as much as possible.  I've spent a lot of time thinking about ways to help myself in these areas and I've come up with some simple math the has helped me tremendously.

The ruleset for DE makes it work well with statistics.  We are much less dependent on the variance of the dice rolls due to having large amount of shots and being that most everything is BS4 and Poison (4+) we can come up with some ideas on what it will take to kill the enemy.

I've broke down the number Shots required to cause 1 unsaved wound using a typical poisoned (4+) weapon.

2+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 18

3+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 9

4+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 6

5+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 3

6+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 3

Granted this is a pretty simple breakdown, but to me it REALLY helps to know how many shots you need to dedicated towards an enemy unit.  For example, if you are shooting at a 10 man unit of SM Tactical squad, you will need 90 shots to kill the entire squad.  For a 5 man squad of Termies, you would need 90 shots as well.  As a side note, for the SC Talos, I did not change the numbers.  They are BS3, but they carry a TL Splinter Cannon, for the sake of easy memorization, I assumed it would basically even out.

The same concept can be done for our lance weaponry as well.  It will always hit on 3s (assuming BS4 of course) and will Glance on at least 4+.  I try to avoid even considering a Pen when determining number of shots to allocate to a target, because it relies on dice variance, plus any dice variant that causes a Pen, is just a bonus to the statistic in this case.  I did not calculate cover saves into this, but feel free to do so.

To Cause 1 Glance, Requires 3 shots
For example, to wreck a land raider, you will need a total of 12 shots to inflict 4 HPs causing a wreck.

I strongly suggest that any Dark Eldar player have these numbers memorized, as it will help aid in the effectiveness of your army!

interesting to know!

according to this it would take 90 shots to kill a rip-tide, but i almost always kill them with less shots than that.

some great statistics! thanks

They should also understand the variance, because those are average numbers.

For example if you have 2 venoms that have los only to one squad and one venom managed to destroy squad completely despite statistic the other venom shots will be wasted. Keep that in mind in the movement phase.

Same goes for Ravagers.

In the long run dice rolls do even out to expected values but a game situation can show variance which also must be expected. In game you deal with variance more then you deal with average, and thats where redundancy come in.

Luckily our army have backup actions such as flat-out which can still allow  some good moves.

Welcome and great write up. I too like to add in a splash of math when I'm concidering on field tactics, the application of my units attacks and target priority. Definitely helpful in list building

Azdrubael wrote:

They should also understand the variance, because those are average numbers.

For example if you have 2 venoms that have los only to one squad and one venom managed to destroy squad completely despite statistic the other venom shots will be wasted. Keep that in mind in the movement phase.

Same goes for Ravagers.

In the long run dice rolls do even out to expected values but a game situation can show variance which also must be expected. In game you deal with variance more then you deal with average, and thats where redundancy come in.

Luckily our army have backup actions such as flat-out which can still allow  some good moves.

You are exactly right!  Variance is a huge part of the game, and a key to being a great player is being able to respond to that variance. The numbers listed are averages, some times it will take less shots and sometimes it will take more.

Using your example, prior to moving, I would determine that 1 Venom SHOULD be able to destroy the enemy squad, and would move the 2nd venom to the most strategic place on the board. Granted, due to variance, the statistics may not hold true in this single shooting phase and the 1st venom may not be able to completely destroy the squad, but it will severely hinder their ability to be effective if they do manage to survive.
To expand on this, if you've determined that it will take 20 Splinter Cannon shots to destroy that enemy unit, and you have 1 venom with SC Trueborn inside, then it would be a good idea to utilize the redundancy to ensure that you eliminate that enemy squad.  Meaning, it takes 20 shots, and you only have 24 available from the 1st venom. In that situation, there is a good chance that variance could creep in and you cannot destroy the squad with just the 1st venom.  I would keep the 2nd venom in range for support to help mitigate the chance for variance.

When making the decision to utilize this redundancy, another thing to keep in mind, is the importance of removing the entire squad.  Is that squad high on your threat level?  Are they holding an objective that you need? Are they just a lowly GEQ squad that will not present much of a threat if a few survive?

This was not intended to be a stand alone strategy, and I use this in conjunction with all of the great tactics I've read on this forum.  Use it to help your target prioritization, to help reducing overkill, and to help in speed utilization.

Since we are mathhammering I am going to put some math here to help decide what kind of anti tank weapons work against different targets.

I will focus on 3 of them: Haywire Blasters, Heatlance and Blasters. These all have comparable ranges and the Blaster can represent everything from a Blast Pistol to a Dark Lance. But you have to compensate for range/type yourself, since it is hard to compare how that will affect the effectiveness. I will skip the "to hit" roll in my math, since that will vary depending on who's holding the gun.

Lets begin with the Blaster, S8 AP2.
The Math/evaluation:
Av 12+
6/36 to glance
6/36 to pen

Av 11
6/36 to glance
12/36 to pen

AV 10
6/36 to glance
18/36 to pen

Chance for 1hitKO (Explodes): 1/6

Heat Lance, S6 AP1, which is assumed to be in melta range. Otherwise it performs worse than the Blaster in all cases.
Av 12+:
5/36 to glance
21/36 to pen

AV 11:
4/36 to glance
26/36 to pen

AV 10:
3/36 to glance
30/36 to pen

Chance for 1hitKO 1/3

Haywire Blaster S- AP -
24/36 to glance
6/36 to pen

Chance for 1hitKO 0

What can we conclude from this?
Well, not much, more than numbers. Haywire Blasters are overall the safest, but cannot destroy a vehicle in one hit. The exception is AV 10 targets, where the Heat Lance has a bit higher chance of doing some kind of damage. A heat Lance is probably the overall best weapon with the highest chance to pen.
Anywho, i feel that it is good to point out how they differ from a mathematical point of view.
All of this is probalby etched into the bone of older players, but new players might find it useful.

TL:DR/IHAETMATH:
Use Heat Lances or Blasters to try to get an initial Explodes! result, strip the last hull point with Haywire Blasters.

I put together a spreadsheet with a list of the number of shots it should statistically take to kill various models with different modifiers. It was initially made for 5th. Anyway, if anyone is interested.

It should be 65% confidence for number of shots to do one wound.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2T2uwmwFNDkSF95bnB6VDU5UVU/edit?usp=sharing

I like discussions like this. While the math hammer of the situation is not absolutely necessary in order to intuit which path is good or "bad", it gives you a way to confirm a decision was sound after the fact.

I always say that situation is king and something "suboptimal" may yet be your only viable answer at the time the decision has to be made and that's just life in the fast lane. You deploy in anticipation of how you think the enemy will act, but then they can surprise you, leaving you with only suboptimal choices. The best among them can be confirmed later but a handy little bit of math like this can help you be prepared if you have a good way to make use of it.

merse24 wrote:

2+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 18

3+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 9

4+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 6

5+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 3

6+ Armor Save
Shots Required: 3

Useful first post. That's rare. This would make a good cheat sheet. Just having this info handy can make determining how much firepower you need to pour into a unit a breeze. Welcome to The Dark City.

Welcome to the Dark City brother. If I may add something of interest, I would love if you would be willing to run some math hammer on the different missiles that we may outfit our razor wings with so that I may justify tricking out my flyer.

No problem at all.  

Keep in mind that due to the randomness of the scatter roll, I did not calculate the number of hits.  Instead, I assumed a number and generated a percentage to inflict an unsaved wound.  Also, I calculated this for T4, T5, and T6 to help illustrate the different scenarios that each missile type is most effective.  

Percent of Hits That Will Cause an Unsaved Wound:


This was very interesting.  Versus MEQ the Shatterfield wins out regardless of toughness (although, if you were to get into the T7+ the Necrotoxin would begin to be the best choice).  Overall, in my opinion, I'm starting to prefer the Necrotoxin.  It performs very well regardless of Toughness and one thing that is not albe to be included is the fact that it causes a Pinning test as well.

Edit:  Ninja's by merse(stupid job   ).  His is nicer to look at but mine also includes toughness 3.

Hopefully this table is readable.  This shows the chances of each hit doing a wound for each missle type.  T=toughness, AS=armor save.  For example:  against toughness 3 and no armor save (the first line) Monoscythe and Necrotoxin should do .83 wounds per hit and Shatterfield .97 wounds per hit.

      Mono Necro Shatter
T:3, AS:- 0.83 0.83 0.97
T:3, AS:6 0.83 0.83 0.81
T:3, AS:5 0.83 0.83 0.63
T:3, AS:4 0.42 0.42 0.49
T:3, AS:3 0.28 0.28 0.32
T:3, AS:2 0.14 0.14 0.16
T:4, AS:- 0.83 0.83 0.97
T:4, AS:6 0.83 0.83 0.81
T:4, AS:5 0.83 0.83 0.63
T:4, AS:4 0.42 0.42 0.49
T:4, AS:3 0.28 0.28 0.32
T:4, AS:2 0.14 0.14 0.16
T:5, AS:- 0.67 0.83 0.97
T:5, AS:6 0.67 0.83 0.81
T:5, AS:5 0.67 0.83 0.63
T:5, AS:4 0.33 0.42 0.49
T:5, AS:3 0.22 0.28 0.32
T:5, AS:2 0.11 0.14 0.16
T:6, AS:- 0.5 0.83 0.89
T:6, AS:6 0.5 0.83 0.74
T:6, AS:5 0.5 0.83 0.59
T:6, AS:4 0.25 0.42 0.44
T:6, AS:3 0.17 0.28 0.3
T:6, AS:2 0.08 0.14 0.15

I dunno about taking Necrotoxin over Shatterfield. If something has a high enough toughness that you would need poison for it then you're probably better off with splinter fire from kabalites or venoms because that thing is gonna have a high armor or invuln save that your missile will most likely just get brushed aside.

The other thing to take into consideration is the effect that a full fusillade of Shatterfield missiles will have on an IG gun line. You will literally poop on their vehicles with those missiles, which might be how they got their name (shat-terfield) while the necrotoxins will just plink off the armor on the vehicles. If I remember correctly the blast weapons will hit their rear armor so for many of the vehicles they will be S7 against AV 10 giving a half chance per missile to get at least a glance with whatever infantry you hit.

oh and you get to instakill T3 models although you can do that with mono scythe.

So I think it comes down to whether or not you want to be able to damage vehicles or to be able to cause a pinning check. So while the vehicle damage is helpful the pinning check very well might be game changing if it goes off, 2 and 2 might be your best bet.

Barrywise wrote:

If I remember correctly the blast weapons will hit their rear armor [...]

Nope. Barrage hits on side armour. Blast just inflicts hits on the side you fire from.

Quote :

Useful first post. That's rare.

Not on a Dark City   

On a Razorwing, monoscythe missiles are the best... Why? Because they are free. Also they still wound most infantry on 2+.

Mathhammer is important to understand BUT it is no substitute for real game experience. Fliers often do not show up when you want them to even with re-rolls or a +1. Sometimes they do not show up till turn 3 or 4 and by then the game may be effectively over.

In my experience units in reserve should be kept cheap and cheerful. That way you can spend the extra points on units that can effect the game from turn 1 and when the reserves do show up its a welcome bonus.

That is a good point PainJunky. Although I really like to do some math hammer myself, the most important thing is that you play a game, which is not decided by average values but real quantized rolls. In shooting the range and costs are equally important as the effectiveness of the weapons themselves. Survivability is also interesting for the platform which carries the guns.
What I do find useful, is to know how much shots it takes to render a certain target ineffective or straight out kills them. That is where GEQ MEQ and TEQ come in the picture and most importantly the local meta.

Painjunky wrote:

Mathhammer is important to understand BUT it is no substitute for real game experience

Mathhammer is a very useful tool both in building lists and in game. It is not meant to substitute experience.

We know on 2D^ we are most likely to roll 7 - however we only have a one in six chance of doing so. Mathhammer is about probabilities. Of course there is variance. Of course your platform, range, and durability play a part. We can calculate probabilities based on wether the player will jink, GtG etc. as well. We can calculate probabilities of whether our unit can survive moving forward. We can calculate which unit should fire fire first on a tyarget based on probabilities. These decisions, math based, make you a better in game player.

Betray, J and I did an exercise one night based on probabilities of which two lists facing each other was likely to win. The result of the experiment was a bit unexpected for one of the participants. I discussed also with Randy one day the probabi9lity of facing off against a protected Stompa and the likelihood of taking it down. Yes, these are probabilities.

So you could say - well that is all theory and dismiss the probabilities and say it in game never works that way BUT the probability is that it will indeed have an outcome witjhin the range of variance that is expected. That is not to say you shouldn't take risks in game. I read a report where a weirboy list beat an IK list because he rolled on sanctid and got some pretty decent powers and never rolled an expected and probable double. We have all heard the story of a runtherder with grots killing a character. I would not base my game plan on it though.

You know what I'd like to see the math hammer on? A dissintegrator compared against dual splinter cannons against various toughness/AP values.

My initial guess is that dissies will be superior against GEQ, equal against MEQ, and inferior against T5+, while having the advantage of being able to hurt AV10/11 vehicles, and being better against 2+ armor.

Basically, anything T4 or less, the dissies likely win outright, except against null or near null armor saves. And if you calculate in the likelyhood of a cover save, invuln saves, etc, cannons likely win out in many cases just due to the sheer number of shots/hits they lay down in comparison.

egorey wrote:

Painjunky wrote:

Mathhammer is important to understand BUT it is no substitute for real game experience

Mathhammer is a very useful tool both in building lists and in game. It is not meant to substitute experience.

We know on 2D^ we are most likely to roll 7 - however we only have a one in six chance of doing so. Mathhammer is about probabilities. Of course there is variance. Of course your platform, range, and durability play a part. We can calculate probabilities based on wether the player will jink, GtG etc. as well. We can calculate probabilities of whether our unit can survive moving forward. We can calculate which unit should fire fire first on a tyarget based on probabilities. These decisions, math based, make you a better in game player.

Betray, J and I did an exercise one night based on probabilities of which  two lists facing each other was likely to win. The result of the experiment was a bit unexpected for one of the participants. I discussed also with Randy one day the probabi9lity of facing off against a protected Stompa and the likelihood of taking it down. Yes, these are probabilities.

So you could say  - well that is all theory and dismiss the probabilities and say it in game never works that way BUT the probability is that it will indeed have an outcome witjhin the range of variance that is expected. That is not to say you shouldn't take risks in game. I read a report where a weirboy list beat an IK list because he rolled on sanctid and got some pretty decent powers and never rolled an expected and probable double. We have all heard the story of a runtherder with grots killing a character.  I would not base my game plan on it though.

Excellent points on mathhammer in general egorey.

I was referring to the discussion on which missile to take on the razorwing.

Mathhammer tells me shatterfield are the most effective in most situations but real game experience tells me to leave them with monos and spend the 20pts elsewhere.

What I was getting at is in this situation (and many others) my real game experience trumps mathhammer.

I have found this to be one of my guiding principles:
 
1.  Use math to determine between two possible tools once your strategy is determined and
2.  Do everything that is in your power to do in order to eliminate the need for testing that theory.
 
We know that a Venom causes 4 wounds  before saves more reliably than almost any platform by virtue of its volume of to hit opportunities.  We also know that this is really 2 unsaved wounds against 4+ armor and 1.33 unsaved wounds against 3+ armor and .67 wounds against 2+ armor.  Compare that to other 65-75 point units in the same codex and you can kind of see whether that's good or bad.  It's a tranmsport that does this which weighs heavily in its favor because the added utility can only be matched by other transports right?
 
Disintegrator Cannons are doing 1.33 unsaved wounds against all armor (tough 4) but not true against tougher targets.  They also are a transport and our closest comparison.  The Venom would therefore win this comparison if general probability were the only question.  Simply dont fire at terminators with the Venom.
 
But the Terminators really inform our choice don't they?  This is where meta affects things and meta is an unknown quantity.  While any tournament could contain Terminators of course, some gaming communities see them more than others.  that is something every player has to FEEL.  But it is why the choice between the two vehicles isn't so cut and dry after all.
 
Also consider that the Disintegrator Cannon is on a 3 Hull Point Chassis.  At 36" range and with Night Shields, the importance of the Hull Points is considerably less but if your STRATEGY calls for maximum force up the gut, suddenly nothing the Venom can do to compete will matter because survival of the vehicle and indeed even firing the weapon are of secondary importance to howmuch effort you can drain the enemy of in killing that hull.  You know it WILL go down, but you are only concerned with the resources it forces the enemy to expend.  In this sense you suddenly find the weapons to be irrelevant.  Now the Raider is the right choice.
 
This is how strategy can make those comparisons moot.  So again to point 1:
1.  Use math to determine between two possible tools once your strategy is determined
 
Dont make math your strategy.  You've been warned.
 
Now that brings us to the second point.  As has been said, dice happen.  Despite all the averages, DuckofDeath rightly points out that the DRAMA in Warhammer games is when the Imperial Guard Sergeant stands up to three Chaos Space marine Chosen and prevails, holding the line for just one more phase, long enough for the prisoners to escape.  He knows he's doomed but he fights the good fight to the end and inexplicably lands a telling blow.  If you cant be excited when things like that happen, even TO YOU, then you really are missing out on a part of the fun of Warhammer 40K.  But I digress.
 
This little example serves only to remind us that in a dice game, anything can happen.  So the best way to eliminate the need for testing the comparison is to arrange the battlefield so that you CAN overcome the possibility of poor dice rolling.  How often has been the case when an arrogant general or even just a slightly misled one will move forward and fire, NEEDLESSLY closer, only to flub and now be forced to retreat in his following round (if indeed he's alive to bemoan his mistake by then) or has now given himself no choice but to sacrifice the whole unit the next turn.  These are moments when you really see the Good Generals for who they are.  When you have an advantage like Night Shields, excellent range, Durability or whatever it is, you must maximize the chances of getting to exhibit that quality.
 
Math helps you do that too with both calculating distances.  Against bolter Infantry, being 31" away and firing is a perfect solution for a Night Shielded Venom.  No closer.  Against tanks, you want to be at 36" when firing a weapon that can hurt them such that they must perhaps both move from a good covered location to hit you or because it may force them to snap fire some weapons.  These little considerations are why Night Shielding impacts the battlefield so much.  
 
Math Hammering also helps you see how much redundancy you need in a force to ensure things.  INSURANCE is important.  While you may know that you need 9 Lances to reliably kill a normal tank, this also means that you need more than that to insure you can CONTINUE to do so.  This number might discourage people but remember, its called armour for a reason!  You can rail at the Gawds about that or shut up and get yourself 9 lances plus insurance.  If that proves too difficult, then you need a new strategy (see point one).  You wouldn't even KNOW you need a new strategy if you didn't do the math.

Very well said! If you're using mathhammer alone as a tactic, you've probably already lost the game. It is intended to be used as a guide to help you in your game. I would elaborate, but Unorthodoxy has said it to well

Hey, sorry to bother y'all again but a fellow denizen raised an idea of bubble wrapping the Dias with B Sathy and a beast pack. He's stuck between going dogs or fiends against a tau list and I don't have anything to really support an argument. So what would be best to bubble with? And does the size of the fiends come into play with better Los blocking? Does it really come down to invuln vs. cover save? There's a lot to take into account with this and any help is greatly appreciated. d-(^_^)z

Nice information