Math Denial

BetrayTheWorld wrote:

Barking Agatha wrote:

EDIT: Oh, sorry.

Yes, I understand probability.

Perhaps it was cruel of me to use an uncommon word on a forum where not everyone is a native english speaker, but some part of me knew I'd get at least one response that didn't understand what I said.

Oh, dear me. Well, I shall certainly endeavour henceforth to improve my vocabulary, lest I again fall into error and give offense to my betters. Much obliged, me lud.

I know the feeling of above or below average saves. A space marine bike squad saved 28 wounds in a row and other times that a venom exploded, did 6 wounds and killed 6 space marines. I enjoy math hammer just because it gives me the odds, not like it will always happen but it gives me a start to strategy.

Bleaksoul Brethren wrote:

I know the feeling of above or below average saves. A space marine bike squad saved 28 wounds in a row and other times that a venom exploded, did 6 wounds and killed 6 space marines. I enjoy math hammer just because it gives me the odds, not like it will always happen but it gives me a start to strategy.

I suspect you understand this, your response is just a little hazy.

It's more than just knowing the odds of something happening. You use the probabilities to determine your best course of action in a given scenario.

ex.

Your opponent declares that he's firing 6 S5 shots at your AV10 HP2 skimmer. Stastically he'll glance one and pen one and your skimmer is dead. Your best move is to use Jink to reduce 1 of those hits to a cover save.

However, it's Turn 5, your opponent has 2 T3 infantry models on an objective in cover. Your skimmer has 3 S5 TL shots, wounding on 2s with no armor saves allowed. At full BS, you will stastically hit with 3, but your opponent will get a 5+ cover save and will likely fail 2 of the 3 saves, allowing your skimmer to get close, clear the infantry off the objective and secure it for a victory point for you. If you jink, you will get stastically get 1 shot that your opponent will probably fail the save for.

-----

Your opponent is 1 deviation on a hit or pen and you are 1 deviation on a hit/wound away from that scenario going either way. Both players making one slightly different than absolute average roll will change the outcome significantly.

This is probably a less-than-ideal off the cuff example, however if you play based on pure stastical averages, you would lose the VP either way. However, we've all played games where yourself or your opponent was able to buck the odds.

Understanding the averages is fine for knowing what the curves look like, however realizing that you have the exact same chances of rolling six dice and getting 6-5-4-3-2-1 as 6-6-6-6-6-6 as 1-3-4-2-4-4 as 5-2-6-1-1-3 as 1-1-1-1-1-1, etc. helps you decide when you're going to push your luck versus taking a different strategy.

Mathhammer just lets you know how far from the stastical mean you're hoping the outcome to be.

koreban wrote:

Bleaksoul Brethren wrote:

I know the feeling of above or below average saves. A space marine bike squad saved 28 wounds in a row and other times that a venom exploded, did 6 wounds and killed 6 space marines. I enjoy math hammer just because it gives me the odds, not like it will always happen but it gives me a start to strategy.

I suspect you understand this, your response is just a little hazy.

It's more than just knowing the odds of something happening.  You use the probabilities to determine your best course of action in a given scenario.  

ex.

Your opponent declares that he's firing 6 S5 shots at your AV10 HP2 skimmer.  Stastically he'll glance one and pen one and your skimmer is dead.  Your best move is to use Jink to reduce 1 of those hits to a cover save.

However, it's Turn 5, your opponent has 2 T3 infantry models on an objective in cover.  Your skimmer has 3 S5 TL shots, wounding on 2s with no armor saves allowed.  At full BS, you will stastically hit with 3, but your opponent will get a 5+ cover save and will likely fail 2 of the 3 saves, allowing your skimmer to get close, clear the infantry off the objective and secure it for a victory point for you.  If you jink, you will get stastically get 1 shot that your opponent will probably fail the save for.

-----

Your opponent is 1 deviation on a hit or pen and you are 1 deviation on a hit/wound away from that scenario going either way.  Both players making one slightly different than absolute average roll will change the outcome significantly.

This is probably a less-than-ideal off the cuff example, however if you play based on pure stastical averages, you would lose the VP either way.  However, we've all played games where yourself or your opponent was able to buck the odds.  

Understanding the averages is fine for knowing what the curves look like, however realizing that you have the exact same chances of rolling six dice and getting 6-5-4-3-2-1 as 6-6-6-6-6-6 as 1-3-4-2-4-4 as 5-2-6-1-1-3 as 1-1-1-1-1-1, etc. helps you decide when you're going to push your luck versus taking a different strategy.

Mathhammer just lets you know how far from the stastical mean you're hoping the outcome to be.

koreban uses wall of mathematics

It's super effective!

I don't think I've had the problem on forums as much as in person when I'm trying to give advice to players at my local store. It does irk me when I use math to support something and they treat it like a detestable form of witchcraft to be tuned out and prefer to trust their gut instead, though.

The thing that bothers me the most is exclamations of "I have the worst luck" or "I lost because of dice". I find these people tend to ignore too many of the rolls they made over the course of the game and focus on the one or two that went poorly. It's human nature to notice the bad outcomes more than the good ones I guess.

For example, one friend of mine practically flipped a table when his unit of dragonprinces in fantasy made every 2+ save against 13ish inflicted wounds, then failed one a few seconds later on 3 more inflicted wounds.

It also annoyed me when a player got grumpy/bitter about only causing two hull points of damage with a Vortex of Doom. To me, getting the deepstriking unit to land within the 12" he needed, casting the warp charge 3 spell off of 4 or 5 dice, , not having it get denied, not having it scatter off target, having me fail the jink save, and him getting a 5 or 6 for the number of hull points inflicted was an unrealistic expectation. To him, it was evidence of his bad luck and what causes him to lose games.

The problem with dice is that people only remember when the dice fail them, not when they do them good. One of the guys I play with offers a guy who complains about his dice $5 if there is a stack of 10 dice at the end of the game with adding dice when rolling a 1 and removing them when rolling a 6. He's never had to pay anyone.

I actually do the other way - I tend to talk up my good roles, and now I am known as a 'lucky' die roller. It's a solid psychological edge to have in tourney play.

There are *multiple* stories about me calling dice, like "Thor was shooting at my Spartan, had one lance hit it, and then was like 'well, guess I'll just have to make sure to blow it up' then rolled a 6 to pen and a 8 for result!" Or on a seize attempt, I call out 'guess I'll just seize' and then will roll a 6.

What they fail to notice is that I *always* claim success prior to a roll. It's just when you do that they only remember the times it works for you.

One of my favorite jokes is to walk up to a random person and tell them to pick a number between 1 and 1000 before you make a guess. Approximately 999 people will get a wrong guess, but that 1 guy you get it right for is going to think you're some kind of magician.

lessthanjeff wrote:

One of my favorite jokes is to walk up to a random person and tell them to pick a number between 1 and 1000 before you make a guess.  Approximately 999 people will get a wrong guess, but that 1 guy you get it right for is going to think you're some kind of magician.

Have you met that guy yet?

That's called a yatzy

I once got spared from a flanking attack in whfb by three riders because they died all three due to difficult terrain. Wierd crap happens. That's called epic also

Count Adhemar wrote:

Mathhammer only gives a guide as to what you can expect over a sufficiently large sample. A single game however will rarely give anywhere near a large enough sample for the actual results of the dice to reflect the probability. Examples just from this week I rolled 6 snap shots and scored 5 hits. Ilost two wounds from 7 shots with a 2+ rerollable save. Mathammer tells us that this will almost never happen but it just did.

well, I think that sums it up well. Math or not, either way it's dice.

I look at the math as more of a general thing, but it usually looks better on paper than what is in reality.

Anyone who scoffs at mathhammer is just fooling themselves. Much like people who hate algebra in the real world. You're using it every day(game) even if you think you don't. It's why you don't shoot bolters at a landraider or a lascannon at a grot. You know in your head the probability of those outcomes and you use the right tool for the job. You just refuse to refine your ability to make those decisions, and refuse even further to find more efficient methods to complete your objectives. It's a tool, and you use it either way, so you may as well accept it and be good at it.

I personally don't have any pet peeves, especially in the forum. Much like in real life, if you ask for my advice and don't take it, well sure, you did waste my time a bit, but go live your life. My only real pet peeve tactics wise is when I'm playing a game, and someone comes over and starts giving me advice I didn't ask for. Especially when they don't even play Dark Eldar. "You should really kill that slow lumbering walker that's never going to reach you." Get away from me you rank neckbeard! Your stupid monkey tactics are no good here!