2000 Point Local Tournament List Review

Good Afternoon Commorrites,

I am joining a local tournament and I'm not quite sure what the meta is currently as their have only been a few games between the players and until the tournament, I haven't had time to get many games in.

I'm expecting the worst to be some mixed tyranid melee support, a knight army with all the knights it can bring, magnus and khorne pals but not brimstone spam or conscript spam and then just the average army, nothing that would be top tier at say the ATC unless I'm being horrifically deceived.

Anyways my list minimizes drops for the bonus and might even be able to compete with a 4 knight list for lowest drops assuming they have a couple small characters or something for support as I can get down to 5 drops. It's meant to be a first turn alpha strike.

For my list, I am just listing upgrades I had to pay for, assume everything unpaid for is there.
List is

Outrider Detachment 1
HQ
Yvraine

FA
Scourges x5, Dark Lances x4
Scourges x5, Dark Lances x4
Scourges x5, Dark Lances x4

HS
Dark Reapers x10, Exarch with Eldar Missile Launcher
Tantalus

DT
Wave Serpent twin Shuriken Cannons, Shuriken Cannon

Outrider Detachment 2
HQ
Farseer Witchblade
Warlock Witchblade

FA
Scourges x10, Splinter Cannons x4
Scourges x10, Splinter Cannons x4
Razorwing Flock x3

I'm just wondering if I should change anything up. When running the list, the reapers get a ton of psyker support, Yvraine gives the Tantalus Ancestor's Grace for reroll 1's until a unit of scourges come in. Farseer takes guide, and then decides if doom or fortune is more necessary. Doom helps the list more but fortune keeps the reapers around and they do a ton of work in this list with the Word of the pheonix and guide on them plus conceal. I figure Yvraine is in the tnatalus, keep it close to serpent and the Reaper Star all disembarks to cover for +1 save. Reapers can get a decent disembark move from the serpent and always hit on 3's.

I like the scourges coming in when needed but I can imagine that its not an unbeatable list and if you guys see any pressing weaknesses I should reinforce. I can see needed a screen a problem for the reapers but I have the wave serpent and I can keep the flock nearby and if the flock dies that could trigger a soulburst for the reapers while still guided in my opponent's turn. If I need a bigger bubble I could still disembark a lance scourge unit. If I need the screen I probably don't need the anti tank anyways.

Farseer for Doom and guide is really good. The reapers will kill just about anything up that way.

I was actually going to run a very similar list. I just can't tell if the list is too gimmicky or not. It can hit really hard for sure.

I think maybe takeven the 3 Razorwing flocks a separately. I like splinter cannons on the scourges as it let's them play the range game a bit better. But I also like saving 60pts a squad for other stuff. Tough call sometimes.

3 DL Scourge units seems like maybe a little overkill in the scourge department. Maybe an actual Ravager or 2 instead? Only because it can be hard to cast SfD with larger units. Or even a Razorwing or 2?... hmmmm! So many good options

Maybe break a few of the squads up a little bit to make it easier to use SfD?

Just suggestions.
I really want to know how this list works out.

Edit!: I did not see the Farseer in the list. Maybe drop a few scourges for more flocks?

well its designed to minimize drops. It has 5

Wave Serpent: dark reapers, warlock, farseer
Tantalus: Yvraine, DL scourge, DL scourge, DL scourge
Razorwing flock
x10 scourges
x10 scourge

This way I can try to go first against 4 knights and an hq or something. That's why I didnt split up the flocks. I went with cannons on the scourges because I don't feel I need them to come down first turn all the time and can use them as a big boost of firepower when I need them to counter genestealers or something by using word of the pheonix to give them 84 shots. Doom and Reroll 1's to hit would make them hella scary to blow away a horde.

You playing ITC rules where the guy that finished deploying 1st gets a +1 to the roll to go first instead of just going first?

Sadly yes. I don't mind the rules for ITC but I don't care for some of the mission changes. Never was a fan of maelstrom even toned down.

I know its not as important to have the least number of drops but the +1 is still big and I can hunker down if I need to.